TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13032537
Played Aug 28Finished
Ondrej Sebek
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411117411611––
Jaroslav Brynych
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:11 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Brynych to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Sebek above · Jaroslav Brynych below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 65 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jaroslav Brynych at 64.5%
65 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Sebek 0–2 Jaroslav Brynych Ondrej Sebek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:11What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Brynych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sebek 1258 vs Brynych 1388
Brynych
Correct
both rated, 130 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebek 20% vs Brynych 40%
Brynych
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebek 30% vs Brynych 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebek -3 · Brynych -2
Sebek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Brynych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brynych form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebek 2.63 / Brynych 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Brynych)-0.0pp
TT Cup · #13032537
Sebek2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 20 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Brynych1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 16 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSebek0wins
AwayBrynych2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderBrynych leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricSebekBrynychS − BBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match32.540.5−8.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSebekBrynychBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 378 vs 47 / 11249.7%42%188 / 378 vs 47 / 112Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrynychSebek 2.63/Brynych 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Brynych · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Brynych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LMar 6 · 18:55O. Sebek—11681172J. Brynych—911116113
LMar 6 · 16:50O. Sebek—8950J. Brynych—1111113
O. Sebek10
WSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113WSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133LSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191LSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113LAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161LAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113LAug 28 · 10:20O. Sebek2.2081111352J. Rolik1.61119911113LAug 24 · 13:59M. Nemec1.53911711113O. Sebek2.3811511932WAug 24 · 12:20J. Rolik1.57810131192O. Sebek2.251112114113LAug 24 · 11:50M. Nemec1.33111012113O. Sebek3.256121051
J. Brynych10
LSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113LSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123LSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113WAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161LAug 28 · 11:50J. Rolik1.911111113J. Brynych1.808440LAug 28 · 10:50J. Brynych2.20711111162F. Musil1.61111348113WAug 16 · 13:20J. Brynych2.20911125113M. Nemec1.61119101162LAug 16 · 12:20J. Brynych3.001790R. Zeman1.361111113WAug 16 · 11:20J. Brynych2.381191011123M. Nemec1.53811126102
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