Michal Nemec vs Ondrej Sebek 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #12482427

Played Aug 24Finished

Michal Nemec

Home

1.33

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

11610121210115––

Ondrej Sebek

Away

3.25

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched — 72.7% is still 72.7%

Graded at full time

Michal Nemec to win

72.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

no pick shipped

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Ondrej Sebek below

Set 1 · 11-6

Set 2 · 10-12

Set 3 · 12-10

Set 4 · 11-5

Point 77 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Michal Nemec at 72.7%

77 points played in total.

H2H Michal Nemec 15–2 Ondrej Sebek Ondrej Sebek has won 2 of their 17 meetings.

Last 10 · 9–1Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 23:16

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.33 (71%)

Nemec

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

15-2 in 17

Nemec

Correct

gap of 13 in 17, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Nemec 1339 vs Sebek 1292

Nemec

Correct

both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Nemec 60% vs Sebek 40%

Nemec

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Nemec 40% vs Sebek 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Nemec +1 · Sebek +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Nemec)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Nemec form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsNemec 1.33 / Sebek 3.25

Signal prob.73% / 27%

Edge (Nemec)+1.8pp

TT Cup · #12482427

Nemec1.33

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite62% won 88 of 142

Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45

Up 1–0, closes it78% 60 of 77

Sebek3.25

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog28% won 18 of 64

Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 36

Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeNemec9wins

AwaySebek1wins

4 of 10 to a deciderNemec leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeNemec100%7 of 7

AwaySebek33.3%1 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Nemec7Sebek3n = 10Nemec took 7 of 10

S2Nemec6Sebek4n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10

S3Nemec7Sebek3n = 10Nemec took 7 of 10

S4Nemec4Sebek3n = 7Nemec took 4 of 7

S5Nemec4Sebek0n = 4Nemec took 4 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home330%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricNemecSebekN − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.134.3+7.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricNemecSebekBasisWin rate · lifetime387 / 788 vs 187 / 37749.1%49.6%387 / 788 vs 187 / 377Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Nemec

Nemec 1.33/Sebek 3.25

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

72.7%

Nemec · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Nemec won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WJun 9 · 21:28M. Nemec—138711113O. Sebek—111111892

WJun 9 · 20:20M. Nemec—1111113O. Sebek—6660

WJun 4 · 11:50M. Nemec—91111113O. Sebek—111661

LMay 26 · 13:50M. Nemec—9119101O. Sebek—11811123

WMay 26 · 11:20M. Nemec—1111123O. Sebek—75100

WMar 26 · 12:50M. Nemec—811119113O. Sebek—11961172

WMar 24 · 11:20M. Nemec—1111113O. Sebek—8860

WMar 20 · 12:20M. Nemec—11911113O. Sebek—711481

WMar 19 · 14:23M. Nemec—118711113O. Sebek—81111892

WMar 19 · 13:20M. Nemec—119118113O. Sebek—81171172

M. Nemec10

LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183 LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113 WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113 WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113 LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171 LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770 LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113 LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182 LSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990 WSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123

O. Sebek10

WSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113 WSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133 LSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191 LSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113 LAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161 LAug 28 · 12:20O. Sebek2.63411461J. Brynych1.4411711113 LAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113 LAug 28 · 10:20O. Sebek2.2081111352J. Rolik1.61119911113 LAug 24 · 13:59M. Nemec1.53911711113O. Sebek2.3811511932 WAug 24 · 12:20J. Rolik1.57810131192O. Sebek2.251112114113

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