TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13002688
Played Aug 24Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911115711119113
Ondrej Sebek
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Ondrej Sebek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 88 set 5, 11-3
88 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 15–2 Ondrej Sebek Ondrej Sebek has won 2 of their 17 meetings.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Nemec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 1.53 / Sebek 2.38
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Nemec)+8.8pp
TT Cup · #13002688
Nemec1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 88 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it78% 60 of 77
Sebek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog28% won 18 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec9wins
AwaySebek1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNemec leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemec100%7 of 7
AwaySebek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec7Sebek3n = 10Nemec took 7 of 10
S2Nemec6Sebek4n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S3Nemec7Sebek3n = 10Nemec took 7 of 10
S4Nemec4Sebek3n = 7Nemec took 4 of 7
S5Nemec4Sebek0n = 4Nemec took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecSebekN − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.134.3+7.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecSebekBasisWin rate · lifetime387 / 789 vs 188 / 37949.1%49.6%387 / 789 vs 188 / 379Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NemecNemec 1.53/Sebek 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.6%
Nemec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 9 · 21:28M. Nemec—138711113O. Sebek—111111892
WJun 9 · 20:20M. Nemec—1111113O. Sebek—6660
WJun 4 · 11:50M. Nemec—91111113O. Sebek—111661
LMay 26 · 13:50M. Nemec—9119101O. Sebek—11811123
WMay 26 · 11:20M. Nemec—1111123O. Sebek—75100
WMar 26 · 12:50M. Nemec—811119113O. Sebek—11961172
WMar 24 · 11:20M. Nemec—1111113O. Sebek—8860
WMar 20 · 12:20M. Nemec—11911113O. Sebek—711481
WMar 19 · 14:23M. Nemec—118711113O. Sebek—81111892
WMar 19 · 13:20M. Nemec—119118113O. Sebek—81171172
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182LSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990WSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123
O. Sebek10
WSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113WSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133LSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191LSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113LAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161LAug 28 · 12:20O. Sebek2.63411461J. Brynych1.4411711113LAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113LAug 28 · 10:20O. Sebek2.2081111352J. Rolik1.61119911113WAug 24 · 12:20J. Rolik1.57810131192O. Sebek2.251112114113LAug 24 · 11:50M. Nemec1.33111012113O. Sebek3.256121051
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