TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071277
Played Sep 3Finished
Jakub Rolik
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111310121113––––
Ondrej Sebek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Rolik to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Rolik above · Ondrej Sebek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 70 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Jakub Rolik at 59.3%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Rolik 26–17 Ondrej Sebek Ondrej Sebek has won 17 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rolik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-17 in 43
Rolik
Wrong
gap of 9 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rolik 1377 vs Sebek 1268
Rolik
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rolik 80% vs Sebek 0%
Rolik
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rolik 60% vs Sebek 20%
Rolik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rolik +3 · Sebek -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rolik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebek form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRolik 1.57 / Sebek 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Rolik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13071277
Rolik1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 85 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it83% 53 of 64
Sebek2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 18 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRolik4wins
AwaySebek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSebek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRolikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySebek75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rolik2Sebek8n = 10Sebek took 8 of 10
S2Rolik2Sebek8n = 10Sebek took 8 of 10
S3Rolik5Sebek5n = 10split evenly
S4Rolik6Sebek1n = 7Rolik took 6 of 7
S5Rolik2Sebek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRolikSebekR − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.339.8−1.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRolikSebekBasisWin rate · lifetime306 / 638 vs 189 / 38348%49.4%306 / 638 vs 189 / 383Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RolikRolik 1.57/Sebek 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Rolik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik—1110110O. Sebek—1312133
WAug 28 · 10:20J. Rolik—119911113O. Sebek—81111352
LAug 24 · 12:20J. Rolik—810131192O. Sebek—1112114113
WJun 9 · 19:50J. Rolik—581111113O. Sebek—11117842
LJun 4 · 13:20J. Rolik—81261182O. Sebek—1110119113
WJun 4 · 12:20J. Rolik—81111143O. Sebek—1199121
LMay 26 · 12:20J. Rolik—85100O. Sebek—1111123
WMay 21 · 10:20J. Rolik—11911113O. Sebek—611641
LMay 16 · 21:54J. Rolik—5860O. Sebek—1111113
LMay 16 · 20:55J. Rolik—271471O. Sebek—111112113
J. Rolik10
LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik1.731113512113M. Nemec2.00911111482WSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:20P. Cibik1.50117611113J. Rolik2.5091111982WSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153
O. Sebek10
WSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113LSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191LSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113LAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161LAug 28 · 12:20O. Sebek2.63411461J. Brynych1.4411711113LAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113LAug 28 · 10:20O. Sebek2.2081111352J. Rolik1.61119911113LAug 24 · 13:59M. Nemec1.53911711113O. Sebek2.3811511932WAug 24 · 12:20J. Rolik1.57810131192O. Sebek2.251112114113LAug 24 · 11:50M. Nemec1.33111012113O. Sebek3.256121051
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