TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076879
Played Sep 4Finished
Michal Kolbusovsky
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1178111181012118
Jakub Rolik
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:29 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Rolik to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Jakub Rolik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 97 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Rolik at 67.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 15–42 Jakub Rolik Michal Kolbusovsky has won 15 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:29What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Rolik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-42 in 57
Rolik
Wrong
gap of 27 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1345 vs Rolik 1419
Rolik
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 60% vs Rolik 80%
Rolik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 50% vs Rolik 70%
Rolik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky -1 · Rolik +3
Rolik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Rolik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbusovsky form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 2.75 / Rolik 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Rolik)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13076879
Kolbusovsky2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 56 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 51
Rolik1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 85 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 54 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky3wins
AwayRolik7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRolik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovsky20%1 of 5
AwayRolik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky5Rolik5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolbusovsky2Rolik8n = 10Rolik took 8 of 10
S3Kolbusovsky5Rolik5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolbusovsky4Rolik5n = 9Rolik took 5 of 9
S5Kolbusovsky1Rolik2n = 3Rolik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbusovskyRolikK − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.043.2−5.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskyRolikBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 453 vs 309 / 64147.5%48.2%215 / 453 vs 309 / 641Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RolikKolbusovsky 2.75/Rolik 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Rolik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolbusovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 24 · 21:20M. Kolbusovsky—911130J. Rolik—1113153
LJul 24 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky—116871J. Rolik—61111113
LJul 24 · 13:18M. Kolbusovsky—116551J. Rolik—71111113
LJul 24 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky—1091151J. Rolik—12118113
WJul 15 · 10:50M. Kolbusovsky—12511153J. Rolik—10117131
WJul 14 · 13:23M. Kolbusovsky—1011312113J. Rolik—128111082
LJul 14 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky—11712562J. Rolik—8111011113
LJul 9 · 19:50M. Kolbusovsky—12861172J. Rolik—1011118113
LJul 8 · 10:50M. Kolbusovsky—981441J. Rolik—111112113
WJun 30 · 10:50M. Kolbusovsky—101111113J. Rolik—127881
M. Kolbusovsky10
WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113WSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182WSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38111158113M. Nemec1.5368111132LSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113WSep 2 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00741111123P. Cibik1.36111179102LAug 11 · 10:04M. Kolbusovsky2.251013781S. Matousch1.57121111113LAug 11 · 08:55M. Kolbusovsky3.251081181J. Vintr1.3312119113LAug 11 · 07:55M. Kolbusovsky2.5011271192O. Hula1.50511116113
J. Rolik10
LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik1.731113512113M. Nemec2.00911111482WSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:20P. Cibik1.50117611113J. Rolik2.5091111982WSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153
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