TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12399887
Played Aug 11Finished
Michal Kolbusovsky
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115211711116911
Ondrej Hula
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:33 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeOndrej Hula to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Ondrej Hula below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 84 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Ondrej Hula at 69.5%
84 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 2–1 Ondrej Hula Ondrej Hula has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:33What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hula
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1206 vs Hula 1495
Hula
Correct
both rated, 289 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 20% vs Hula 60%
Hula
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 10% vs Hula 60%
Hula
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky +1 · Hula +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Hula)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbusovsky form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 2.50 / Hula 1.50
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Hula)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12399887
Kolbusovsky2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 58 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back20% 19 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 56
Hula1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite47% won 9 of 19
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky2wins
AwayHula1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKolbusovsky leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovsky66.7%2 of 3
AwayHulan = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky3Hula0n = 3Kolbusovsky took 3 of 3
S2Kolbusovsky1Hula2n = 3Hula took 2 of 3
S3Kolbusovsky0Hula3n = 3Hula took 3 of 3
S4Kolbusovsky3Hula0n = 3Kolbusovsky took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKolbusovskyHulaK − HBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match51.749.0+2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskyHulaBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 456 vs 28 / 6148%45.9%219 / 456 vs 28 / 61Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HulaKolbusovsky 2.50/Hula 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Hula · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hula won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 11 · 22:03M. Kolbusovsky—11971192O. Hula—811118113
WJul 11 · 18:55M. Kolbusovsky—18118133O. Hula—16911111
WFeb 21 · 12:55M. Kolbusovsky—1681211113O. Hula—141114842
M. Kolbusovsky10
WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171WSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282LSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113WSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182WSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38111158113M. Nemec1.5368111132LSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113WSep 2 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00741111123P. Cibik1.36111179102LAug 11 · 10:04M. Kolbusovsky2.251013781S. Matousch1.57121111113LAug 11 · 08:55M. Kolbusovsky3.251081181J. Vintr1.3312119113
O. Hula10
WAug 14 · 17:20O. Hula1.3611711113J. Brynych3.00711791LAug 14 · 16:50O. Hula1.808880P. Cibik1.911111113WAug 14 · 15:20J. Vintr1.8311831192O. Hula1.83811116113WAug 14 · 14:50J. Brynych2.104460O. Hula1.671111113LAug 11 · 10:35O. Hula1.73131181192J. Vintr2.00154118113WAug 11 · 09:25O. Hula1.80711511113S. Matousch1.9111711982WAug 11 · 07:25J. Vintr2.001481171O. Hula1.7316115113LJul 15 · 18:25M. Zajicek1.25111388113O. Hula3.40911111192WJul 15 · 16:55O. Hula2.101111113M. Juhasz1.677930WJul 15 · 15:55O. Hula2.50411512113M. Cesak1.50116111092
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