Jakub Rolik vs Radek Zeman 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13076718

Played Sep 4Finished

Jakub Rolik

Home

2.20

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

711811114114116

Radek Zeman

Away

1.62

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 4

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Jakub Rolik to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

no pick shipped

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingJakub Rolik above · Radek Zeman below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 8-11

Set 3 · 11-4

Set 4 · 11-4

Set 5 · 11-6

Point 84 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jakub Rolik at 54.0%

84 points played in total.

H2H Jakub Rolik 38–62 Radek Zeman Jakub Rolik has won 38 of their 100 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 09:49

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Zeman

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

38-62 in 100

Zeman

Wrong

gap of 24 in 100, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Rolik 1399 vs Zeman 1379

Rolik

Correct

both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Rolik 80% vs Zeman 20%

Rolik

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Rolik 50% vs Zeman 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Rolik +1 · Zeman -4

Zeman

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Zeman) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Zeman form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsRolik 2.20 / Zeman 1.61

Signal prob.41% / 59%

Edge (Zeman)+1.6pp

TT Cup · #13076718

Rolik2.20

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog42% won 89 of 210

Down 0–1, comes back28% 33 of 119

Down 0–2, comes back17% 11 of 64

Zeman1.61

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite63% won 111 of 176

Up 2–0, closes it89% 64 of 72

Up 1–0, closes it76% 86 of 113

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeRolik3wins

AwayZeman7wins

2 of 10 to a deciderZeman leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeRolik50%2 of 4

AwayZeman83.3%5 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Rolik4Zeman6n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10

S2Rolik4Zeman6n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10

S3Rolik6Zeman4n = 10Rolik took 6 of 10

S4Rolik2Zeman4n = 6Zeman took 4 of 6

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricRolikZemanR − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.038.2−2.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricRolikZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime307 / 639 vs 323 / 61748%52.4%307 / 639 vs 323 / 617Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.7per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Zeman

Rolik 2.20/Zeman 1.61

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

59.3%

Zeman · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Rolik won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LAug 26 · 21:50J. Rolik—119691R. Zeman—61111113

WAug 26 · 18:50J. Rolik—131111113R. Zeman—156871

LAug 19 · 19:20J. Rolik—5111610102R. Zeman—1161412123

LAug 10 · 19:50J. Rolik—951441R. Zeman—111112113

LAug 3 · 18:20J. Rolik—48110R. Zeman—1111133

LAug 2 · 10:50J. Rolik—11450R. Zeman—1311113

LJul 24 · 19:50J. Rolik—1561181R. Zeman—17115113

WJul 20 · 20:20J. Rolik—1113113R. Zeman—81190

LJul 14 · 19:50J. Rolik—11881122R. Zeman—311115113

WJul 12 · 13:30J. Rolik—1115113R. Zeman—31380

J. Rolik10

LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260 LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282 WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113 WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990 LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133 WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982 WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik1.731113512113M. Nemec2.00911111482 WSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102 LSep 1 · 12:20P. Cibik1.50117611113J. Rolik2.5091111982 WSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153

R. Zeman10

WSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183 LSep 6 · 12:20R. Zeman2.1071260Z. Vyskocil1.671114113 LSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113 LSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113 WSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260 WSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770 WSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113 LAug 30 · 21:24P. Cibik1.731211113R. Zeman2.0010060 LAug 30 · 20:20P. Cibik1.7311121110123R. Zeman2.00914812102 LAug 30 · 19:50Z. Vyskocil1.8011713113R. Zeman1.913111121

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