TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13047354
Played Aug 30Finished
Pavel Cibik
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119121411810121210
Radek Zeman
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:12 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Radek Zeman below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 109 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 55.3%
109 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 12–8 Radek Zeman Radek Zeman has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:12What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-8 in 20
Cibik
Correct
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1545 vs Zeman 1400
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 145 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 60% vs Zeman 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 50% vs Zeman 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik -2 · Zeman -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Cibik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 1.73 / Zeman 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Cibik)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13047354
Cibik1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 57 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it74% 40 of 54
Zeman2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 31 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik5wins
AwayZeman5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik40%2 of 5
AwayZeman40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S2Cibik6Zeman4n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S3Cibik6Zeman4n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S4Cibik3Zeman6n = 9Zeman took 6 of 9
S5Cibik3Zeman3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikZemanC − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.944.0−1.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 659 vs 326 / 62044.8%52.6%295 / 659 vs 326 / 620Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikCibik 1.73/Zeman 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 22:25P. Cibik—11146832R. Zeman—4121111113
LAug 13 · 18:55P. Cibik—11711952R. Zeman—711611113
WAug 9 · 10:20P. Cibik—451211123R. Zeman—1111106102
WAug 5 · 18:20P. Cibik—1611113R. Zeman—14780
LAug 4 · 20:50P. Cibik—11101061R. Zeman—81212113
LJul 25 · 12:25P. Cibik—7111081R. Zeman—11712113
WJul 17 · 22:05P. Cibik—512129113R. Zeman—1110101192
WJul 17 · 20:20P. Cibik—1191112123R. Zeman—911714102
WJul 12 · 11:50P. Cibik—81111123R. Zeman—1159101
LJul 4 · 18:30P. Cibik—71171172R. Zeman—115119113
P. Cibik10
LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2.1078110Z. Vyskocil1.671111133WSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123WSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113LSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881LSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113LSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123
R. Zeman10
WSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:20R. Zeman2.1071260Z. Vyskocil1.671114113LSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113LSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260WSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770WSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113LSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462LAug 30 · 21:24P. Cibik1.731211113R. Zeman2.0010060LAug 30 · 19:50Z. Vyskocil1.8011713113R. Zeman1.913111121
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