TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13068201
Played Sep 3Finished
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101416118118––
Pavel Cibik
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:58 and never touched — 73.9% is still 73.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
73.9%
73.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 90 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 73.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 29–7 Pavel Cibik Pavel Cibik has won 7 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-7 in 36
Jr
Correct
gap of 22 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1555 vs Cibik 1481
Jr
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 80% vs Cibik 40%
Jr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 90% vs Cibik 60%
Jr
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +2 · Cibik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.36 / Cibik 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Jr)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13068201
Jr1.36
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 72 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it82% 54 of 66
Cibik3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 68 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back25% 21 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr9wins
AwayCibik1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr100%7 of 7
AwayCibik33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr7Cibik3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S2Jr9Cibik1n = 10Jr took 9 of 10
S3Jr7Cibik3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S4Jr4Cibik1n = 5Jr took 4 of 5
S5Jr2Cibik1n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrCibikJ − CBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.131.8+9.3per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime338 / 621 vs 298 / 66454.4%44.9%338 / 621 vs 298 / 664Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.36/Cibik 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 19:20T. Jr—111011113P. Cibik—712671
WMay 28 · 08:25T. Jr—1111123P. Cibik—88100
WMay 1 · 16:20T. Jr—111111113P. Cibik—281361
WApr 28 · 12:20T. Jr—1111123P. Cibik—69100
WApr 21 · 16:50T. Jr—1013911113P. Cibik—121111372
WApr 7 · 11:20T. Jr—1511113P. Cibik—13840
WMar 6 · 23:05T. Jr—1111113P. Cibik—8450
WMar 6 · 19:20T. Jr—911119113P. Cibik—11961172
LMar 3 · 11:20T. Jr—511131182P. Cibik—119159113
WFeb 28 · 19:20T. Jr—1111113P. Cibik—5790
T. Jr10
WSep 6 · 22:04Z. Vyskocil1.6711111010112T. Jr2.10371212133LSep 6 · 20:55T. Jr1.73116771Z. Vyskocil2.0081111113LSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113LSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530WSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143WSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113WAug 30 · 21:55Z. Vyskocil1.807270T. Jr1.901111113LAug 30 · 20:50T. Jr1.8012514101Z. Vyskocil1.91141112123WAug 30 · 19:20P. Cibik3.25712671T. Jr1.33111011113
P. Cibik10
LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2.1078110Z. Vyskocil1.671111133WSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123WSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113LSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113LSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123LAug 30 · 19:20P. Cibik3.25712671T. Jr1.33111011113
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