TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13047480
Played Aug 30Finished
Pavel Cibik
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111210611711––
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:38 and never touched — 69.7% is still 69.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
69.7%
69.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Tomas Cerveny Jr below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 69.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 7–29 Tomas Cerveny Jr Pavel Cibik has won 7 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:38What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-29 in 36
Jr
Correct
gap of 22 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1566 vs Jr 1549
Cibik
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 60% vs Jr 100%
Jr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 60% vs Jr 90%
Jr
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik -1 · Jr +5
Jr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 3.25 / Jr 1.33
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Jr)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13047480
Cibik3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 70 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 45
Jr1.33
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 74 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it81% 55 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik1wins
AwayJr9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik33.3%1 of 3
AwayJr100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S2Cibik1Jr9n = 10Jr took 9 of 10
S3Cibik3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S4Cibik1Jr4n = 5Jr took 4 of 5
S5Cibik1Jr2n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikJrC − JBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.841.1−9.3per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikJrBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 659 vs 337 / 62044.8%54.4%295 / 659 vs 337 / 620Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrCibik 3.25/Jr 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.7%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 19:20P. Cibik—712671T. Jr—111011113
LMay 28 · 08:25P. Cibik—88100T. Jr—1111123
LMay 1 · 16:20P. Cibik—281361T. Jr—111111113
LApr 28 · 12:20P. Cibik—69100T. Jr—1111123
LApr 21 · 16:50P. Cibik—121111372T. Jr—1013911113
LApr 7 · 11:20P. Cibik—13840T. Jr—1511113
LMar 6 · 23:05P. Cibik—8450T. Jr—1111113
LMar 6 · 19:20P. Cibik—11961172T. Jr—911119113
WMar 3 · 11:20P. Cibik—119159113T. Jr—511131182
LFeb 28 · 19:20P. Cibik—5790T. Jr—1111113
P. Cibik10
WSep 7 · 21:20R. Zeman2.025740P. Cibik1.701111113LSep 7 · 20:20P. Cibik1.611111103122R. Zeman2.20871211143LSep 7 · 19:20P. Cibik2.10811110Z. Vyskocil1.671113133WSep 7 · 18:20P. Cibik1.83113711113L. Vich1.8391111952LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2.1078110Z. Vyskocil1.671111133WSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123WSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113
T. Jr10
WSep 6 · 22:04Z. Vyskocil1.6711111010112T. Jr2.10371212133LSep 6 · 20:55T. Jr1.73116771Z. Vyskocil2.0081111113LSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113LSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530WSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143WSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881WSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113WAug 30 · 21:55Z. Vyskocil1.807270T. Jr1.901111113LAug 30 · 20:50T. Jr1.8012514101Z. Vyskocil1.91141112123
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