TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091931
Played Sep 7Finished
Pavel Cibik
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11811710123111214
Radek Zeman
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:08 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Radek Zeman below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 99 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 59.7%
99 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 15–8 Radek Zeman Radek Zeman has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:08What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cibik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-8 in 23
Cibik
Wrong
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1467 vs Zeman 1360
Cibik
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 40% vs Zeman 20%
Cibik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 50% vs Zeman 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik -1 · Zeman -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Cibik) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 1.61 / Zeman 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Cibik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13091931
Cibik1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 64 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it74% 46 of 62
Zeman2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 31 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik6wins
AwayZeman4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik57.1%4 of 7
AwayZeman33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik7Zeman3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S2Cibik6Zeman4n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S3Cibik7Zeman3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S4Cibik1Zeman6n = 7Zeman took 6 of 7
S5Cibik3Zeman2n = 5Cibik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikZemanC − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.141.1+1.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime303 / 673 vs 323 / 61445%52.6%303 / 673 vs 323 / 614Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikCibik 1.61/Zeman 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 10:20P. Cibik—1615113R. Zeman—141380
WAug 30 · 21:24P. Cibik—1211113R. Zeman—10060
WAug 30 · 20:20P. Cibik—11121110123R. Zeman—914812102
LAug 13 · 22:25P. Cibik—11146832R. Zeman—4121111113
LAug 13 · 18:55P. Cibik—11711952R. Zeman—711611113
WAug 9 · 10:20P. Cibik—451211123R. Zeman—1111106102
WAug 5 · 18:20P. Cibik—1611113R. Zeman—14780
LAug 4 · 20:50P. Cibik—11101061R. Zeman—81212113
LJul 25 · 12:25P. Cibik—7111081R. Zeman—11712113
WJul 17 · 22:05P. Cibik—512129113R. Zeman—1110101192
P. Cibik10
LSep 7 · 19:20P. Cibik2.10811110Z. Vyskocil1.671113133WSep 7 · 18:20P. Cibik1.83113711113L. Vich1.8391111952LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2.1078110Z. Vyskocil1.671111133WSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123WSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113LSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881LSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113
R. Zeman10
LSep 7 · 19:50L. Vich1.611111113R. Zeman2.206640LSep 7 · 18:50R. Zeman2.7581070Z. Vyskocil1.401112113WSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:20R. Zeman2.1071260Z. Vyskocil1.671114113LSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113LSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260WSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770WSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113LSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462
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