TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13088403
Played Sep 6Finished
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811118911911––
Lukas Vich
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Vich to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Lukas Vich below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Vich at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 15–21 Lukas Vich Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 15 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:32What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vich
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-21 in 36
Vich
Correct
gap of 6 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1540 vs Vich 1534
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 80% vs Vich 60%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 80% vs Vich 60%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Vich +3
Vich
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Vich) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.00 / Vich 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Vich)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13088403
Jr2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 32 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back14% 7 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Vich1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 37 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it61% 22 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr3wins
AwayVich7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVich leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr75%3 of 4
AwayVich100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr4Vich6n = 10Vich took 6 of 10
S2Jr5Vich5n = 10split evenly
S3Jr1Vich9n = 10Vich took 9 of 10
S4Jr3Vich3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrVichJ − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.038.2−4.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrVichBasisWin rate · lifetime341 / 626 vs 240 / 51654.5%46.5%341 / 626 vs 240 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VichJr 2.00/Vich 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Vich · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr—811991L. Vich—11811113
LAug 20 · 20:50T. Jr—71191182L. Vich—117118113
WAug 6 · 22:28T. Jr—1111113L. Vich—7990
LAug 6 · 20:55T. Jr—8840L. Vich—1111113
WJul 31 · 18:55T. Jr—11169123L. Vich—81411101
LJun 25 · 20:20T. Jr—7430L. Vich—1111113
LJun 23 · 20:55T. Jr—811561L. Vich—11511113
LJun 21 · 20:55T. Jr—119781L. Vich—51111113
LJun 11 · 20:55T. Jr—71080L. Vich—1112113
WJun 10 · 19:55T. Jr—1110713113L. Vich—912111162
T. Jr10
WSep 6 · 22:04Z. Vyskocil1.6711111010112T. Jr2.10371212133LSep 6 · 20:55T. Jr1.73116771Z. Vyskocil2.0081111113LSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530WSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143WSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881WSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113WAug 30 · 21:55Z. Vyskocil1.807270T. Jr1.901111113LAug 30 · 20:50T. Jr1.8012514101Z. Vyskocil1.91141112123WAug 30 · 19:20P. Cibik3.25712671T. Jr1.33111011113
L. Vich10
LSep 6 · 22:35T. Rein1.921211113L. Vich1.7810540LSep 6 · 21:25L. Vich2.3858111182T. Rein1.53111175113WSep 6 · 19:25Z. Vyskocil1.731110111162L. Vich2.00712913113WSep 2 · 22:03L. Vich1.671711123M. Juhasz2.10158100WSep 2 · 20:55L. Vich1.8311113113M. Juhasz1.83891181LSep 2 · 19:55L. Vich1.831151051Z. Vyskocil1.8391112113LSep 2 · 18:55L. Vich2.205380T. Barsa1.611111113LAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113WAug 31 · 20:50L. Vich1.7311714113Z. Dusek2.009111241WAug 31 · 19:20S. Matousch2.2075111192L. Vich1.61111186113
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