TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13088196
Played Sep 6Finished
Lukas Vich
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511811117115811
Tomas Rein
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:12 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Rein to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Vich above · Tomas Rein below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 88 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Rein at 56.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Vich 19–22 Tomas Rein Lukas Vich has won 19 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:12What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rein
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-22 in 41
Rein
Correct
gap of 3 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vich 1534 vs Rein 1514
Vich
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vich 80% vs Rein 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vich 70% vs Rein 40%
Vich
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vich +4 · Rein -1
Vich
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Rein)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rein form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVich 2.38 / Rein 1.53
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Rein)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13088196
Vich2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 62 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 50
Rein1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 66 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it73% 50 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVich3wins
AwayRein7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRein leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVichn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayRein77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vich1Rein9n = 10Rein took 9 of 10
S2Vich3Rein7n = 10Rein took 7 of 10
S3Vich5Rein5n = 10split evenly
S4Vich4Rein3n = 7Vich took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVichReinV − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match33.739.8−6.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVichReinBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 516 vs 384 / 83146.5%46.2%240 / 516 vs 384 / 831Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReinVich 2.38/Rein 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.2%
Rein · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rein won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 5 · 18:20L. Vich—971191T. Rein—11118113
LApr 30 · 20:50L. Vich—2711121T. Rein—11119143
WApr 29 · 20:50L. Vich—111310113T. Rein—8111281
LApr 19 · 21:50L. Vich—541112132T. Rein—1111910153
LApr 19 · 19:50L. Vich—7660T. Rein—1111113
WMar 27 · 21:50L. Vich—971211113T. Rein—111110362
LMar 18 · 22:55L. Vich—714471T. Rein—111211113
LMar 18 · 19:20L. Vich—4570T. Rein—1111113
LMar 8 · 23:30L. Vich—6970T. Rein—1111113
WMar 8 · 19:55L. Vich—51111133T. Rein—1164111
L. Vich10
LSep 6 · 22:35T. Rein1.921211113L. Vich1.7810540WSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113WSep 6 · 19:25Z. Vyskocil1.731110111162L. Vich2.00712913113WSep 2 · 22:03L. Vich1.671711123M. Juhasz2.10158100WSep 2 · 20:55L. Vich1.8311113113M. Juhasz1.83891181LSep 2 · 19:55L. Vich1.831151051Z. Vyskocil1.8391112113LSep 2 · 18:55L. Vich2.205380T. Barsa1.611111113LAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113WAug 31 · 20:50L. Vich1.7311714113Z. Dusek2.009111241WAug 31 · 19:20S. Matousch2.2075111192L. Vich1.61111186113
T. Rein10
WSep 6 · 22:35T. Rein1.921211113L. Vich1.7810540LSep 6 · 20:25T. Rein1.40119121192Z. Vyskocil2.75311143113WSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972WSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141WSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein4.00981111113T. Hnizdil1.2211119572LSep 5 · 06:55T. Rein1.9113661142B. Budik1.801111119113LSep 3 · 14:09T. Hnizdil1.251111113T. Rein3.753990LSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272LSep 3 · 12:25O. Knazik1.401111113T. Rein2.753540
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