TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086389
Played Sep 6Finished
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119611411711––
Tomas Rein
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Tomas Rein below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 70 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 57.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 30–29 Tomas Rein Tomas Rein has won 29 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-29 in 59
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1580 vs Rein 1497
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 100% vs Rein 60%
Jr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 90% vs Rein 30%
Jr
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +5 · Rein +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rein form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.50 / Rein 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Jr)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13086389
Jr1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 76 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 57 of 69
Rein2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 95 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back21% 33 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr10wins
AwayRein0wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 10–0, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr100%7 of 7
AwayRein0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr7Rein3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S2Jr7Rein3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S3Jr8Rein2n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S4Jr4Rein3n = 7Jr took 4 of 7
S5Jr4Rein0n = 4Jr took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrReinJ − RBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.933.6+7.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrReinBasisWin rate · lifetime341 / 624 vs 383 / 82954.7%46.2%341 / 624 vs 383 / 829Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.50/Rein 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rein won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 20 · 14:50T. Jr—1111113T. Rein—6980
WApr 24 · 13:59T. Jr—1111113T. Rein—8790
WApr 24 · 12:55T. Jr—138114113T. Rein—111171182
WApr 21 · 14:20T. Jr—119116113T. Rein—91191152
WApr 7 · 10:50T. Jr—111215113T. Rein—8141371
WMar 31 · 13:18T. Jr—111158113T. Rein—45111192
WMar 31 · 11:20T. Jr—511311113T. Rein—11411792
WMar 27 · 19:50T. Jr—71111113T. Rein—112871
WMar 26 · 19:20T. Jr—61111113T. Rein—113781
WMar 19 · 22:50T. Jr—1111113T. Rein—6450
T. Jr10
WSep 6 · 22:04Z. Vyskocil1.6711111010112T. Jr2.10371212133LSep 6 · 20:55T. Jr1.73116771Z. Vyskocil2.0081111113LSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113WSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530WSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143WSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881WSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113WAug 30 · 21:55Z. Vyskocil1.807270T. Jr1.901111113LAug 30 · 20:50T. Jr1.8012514101Z. Vyskocil1.91141112123WAug 30 · 19:20P. Cibik3.25712671T. Jr1.33111011113
T. Rein10
WSep 6 · 22:35T. Rein1.921211113L. Vich1.7810540WSep 6 · 21:25L. Vich2.3858111182T. Rein1.53111175113LSep 6 · 20:25T. Rein1.40119121192Z. Vyskocil2.75311143113WSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972WSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141WSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein4.00981111113T. Hnizdil1.2211119572LSep 5 · 06:55T. Rein1.9113661142B. Budik1.801111119113LSep 3 · 14:09T. Hnizdil1.251111113T. Rein3.753990LSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272LSep 3 · 12:25O. Knazik1.401111113T. Rein2.753540
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