TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13056031
Played Sep 1Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7116111191315––
Jakub Rolik
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeSimon Matousch to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Jakub Rolik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 83 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Simon Matousch at 56.6%
83 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 26–22 Jakub Rolik Jakub Rolik has won 22 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Matousch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-22 in 48
Matousch
Wrong
gap of 4 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1422 vs Rolik 1354
Matousch
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 40% vs Rolik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 50% vs Rolik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch -1 · Rolik -3
Rolik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Matousch)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 1.67 / Rolik 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Matousch)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13056031
Matousch1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 32 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it79% 27 of 34
Rolik2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 87 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back17% 11 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatousch6wins
AwayRolik4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMatousch leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatousch66.7%4 of 6
AwayRolik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch6Rolik4n = 10Matousch took 6 of 10
S2Matousch7Rolik3n = 10Matousch took 7 of 10
S3Matousch5Rolik5n = 10split evenly
S4Matousch5Rolik3n = 8Matousch took 5 of 8
S5Matousch2Rolik3n = 5Rolik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatouschRolikM − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.436.3+5.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschRolikBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 340 vs 302 / 63247.9%47.8%163 / 340 vs 302 / 632Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatouschMatousch 1.67/Rolik 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Matousch · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rolik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 6 · 17:20S. Matousch—1111113J. Rolik—8350
WAug 6 · 16:20S. Matousch—116811113J. Rolik—61111142
WJul 24 · 11:50S. Matousch—911711113J. Rolik—11911982
WJun 29 · 12:20S. Matousch—1111113J. Rolik—9710
LJun 18 · 17:29S. Matousch—1371161J. Rolik—15118113
LJun 18 · 14:20S. Matousch—11911962J. Rolik—711611113
WMay 29 · 06:55S. Matousch—11118113J. Rolik—971151
LDec 3 · 15:20S. Matousch—81261192J. Rolik—1110117113
WNov 25 · 13:20S. Matousch—21111113J. Rolik—119361
LOct 22 · 14:40S. Matousch—111113572J. Rolik—551511113
S. Matousch10
LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791WAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113LAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113LAug 31 · 19:20S. Matousch2.2075111192L. Vich1.61111186113
J. Rolik10
LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik1.731113512113M. Nemec2.00911111482WSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:20P. Cibik1.50117611113J. Rolik2.5091111982
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