TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13032369
Played Aug 28Finished
Ondrej Sebek
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119119311511
Jakub Rolik
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 60.6% is still 60.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Rolik to win
60.6%
60.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Sebek above · Jakub Rolik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 89 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Jakub Rolik at 60.6%
89 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Sebek 16–25 Jakub Rolik Ondrej Sebek has won 16 of their 41 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Rolik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-25 in 41
Rolik
Correct
gap of 9 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebek 1273 vs Rolik 1378
Rolik
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebek 40% vs Rolik 80%
Rolik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebek 40% vs Rolik 60%
Rolik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebek -1 · Rolik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Rolik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rolik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebek 2.20 / Rolik 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Rolik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13032369
Sebek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog29% won 20 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Rolik1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 88 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it81% 55 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebek5wins
AwayRolik5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebek71.4%5 of 7
AwayRolik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebek7Rolik3n = 10Sebek took 7 of 10
S2Sebek7Rolik3n = 10Sebek took 7 of 10
S3Sebek4Rolik6n = 10Rolik took 6 of 10
S4Sebek1Rolik7n = 8Rolik took 7 of 8
S5Sebek2Rolik1n = 3Sebek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSebekRolikS − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.638.1+0.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSebekRolikBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 376 vs 300 / 62750%47.9%188 / 376 vs 300 / 627Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RolikSebek 2.20/Rolik 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Rolik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rolik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 12:20O. Sebek—1112114113J. Rolik—810131192
LJun 9 · 19:50O. Sebek—11117842J. Rolik—581111113
WJun 4 · 13:20O. Sebek—1110119113J. Rolik—81261182
LJun 4 · 12:20O. Sebek—1199121J. Rolik—81111143
WMay 26 · 12:20O. Sebek—1111123J. Rolik—85100
LMay 21 · 10:20O. Sebek—611641J. Rolik—11911113
WMay 16 · 21:54O. Sebek—1111113J. Rolik—5860
WMay 16 · 20:55O. Sebek—111112113J. Rolik—271471
LMay 15 · 19:50O. Sebek—7131161J. Rolik—11156113
LMay 12 · 11:50O. Sebek—211771J. Rolik—11511113
O. Sebek10
WSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113WSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133LSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191LSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113LAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161LAug 28 · 12:20O. Sebek2.63411461J. Brynych1.4411711113LAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113LAug 24 · 13:59M. Nemec1.53911711113O. Sebek2.3811511932WAug 24 · 12:20J. Rolik1.57810131192O. Sebek2.251112114113LAug 24 · 11:50M. Nemec1.33111012113O. Sebek3.256121051
J. Rolik10
LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik1.731113512113M. Nemec2.00911111482WSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LAug 24 · 12:20J. Rolik1.57810131192O. Sebek2.251112114113
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