TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13033492
Played Aug 28Finished
Ondrej Sebek
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811711––––
Filip Musil
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:20 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeFilip Musil to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Sebek above · Filip Musil below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 54 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Filip Musil at 58.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Sebek 1–1 Filip Musil Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:20What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Musil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sebek 1258 vs Musil 1479
Musil
Correct
both rated, 220 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebek 40% vs Musil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebek 40% vs Musil 70%
Musil
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebek -2 · Musil +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Musil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Musil form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebek 2.25 / Musil 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Musil)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13033492
Sebek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 20 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Musil1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 24 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSebek1wins
AwayMusil1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricSebekMusilS − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match33.537.5−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSebekMusilBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 378 vs 118 / 21649.7%54.6%188 / 378 vs 118 / 216Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MusilSebek 2.25/Musil 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Musil · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Musil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek—6870F. Musil—1111113
WAug 24 · 10:50O. Sebek—111167113F. Musil—66111182
O. Sebek10
WSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113WSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133LSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191LSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113LAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161LAug 28 · 12:20O. Sebek2.63411461J. Brynych1.4411711113LAug 28 · 10:20O. Sebek2.2081111352J. Rolik1.61119911113LAug 24 · 13:59M. Nemec1.53911711113O. Sebek2.3811511932WAug 24 · 12:20J. Rolik1.57810131192O. Sebek2.251112114113LAug 24 · 11:50M. Nemec1.33111012113O. Sebek3.256121051
F. Musil10
WAug 28 · 13:55F. Musil1.6512912113J. Rolik2.1010111081WAug 28 · 12:50F. Musil1.61412116113J. Rolik2.20111051192WAug 28 · 10:50J. Brynych2.20711111162F. Musil1.61111348113LAug 24 · 13:28J. Rolik2.00913911113F. Musil1.73111111982WAug 24 · 12:50F. Musil1.447111212113M. Nemec2.63115141042LAug 24 · 11:20J. Rolik2.25911149113F. Musil1.57115121192LAug 24 · 10:50O. Sebek2.20111167113F. Musil1.6166111182WMay 11 · 17:50F. Musil1.61116911113R. Zeman2.2071111462WMay 11 · 16:50A. Krcil1.918790F. Musil1.801111113WMay 11 · 15:50F. Musil1.6711131411123R. Zeman2.10915169102
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