TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12482028
Played Aug 24Finished
Jakub Rolik
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111151412911119
Filip Musil
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:46 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeFilip Musil to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Rolik above · Filip Musil below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 102 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Filip Musil at 66.9%
102 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Rolik 18–20 Filip Musil Jakub Rolik has won 18 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:46What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Musil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-20 in 38
Musil
Wrong
gap of 2 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rolik 1306 vs Musil 1477
Musil
Wrong
both rated, 171 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rolik 40% vs Musil 80%
Musil
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rolik 30% vs Musil 80%
Musil
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rolik -1 · Musil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Musil) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Musil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRolik 2.25 / Musil 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Musil)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #12482028
Rolik2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 85 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back25% 30 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back17% 12 of 69
Musil1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 23 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRolik5wins
AwayMusil5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRolik66.7%4 of 6
AwayMusil75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rolik6Musil4n = 10Rolik took 6 of 10
S2Rolik2Musil8n = 10Musil took 8 of 10
S3Rolik6Musil4n = 10Rolik took 6 of 10
S4Rolik1Musil6n = 7Musil took 6 of 7
S5Rolik4Musil1n = 5Rolik took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRolikMusilR − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.940.7−1.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRolikMusilBasisWin rate · lifetime296 / 621 vs 119 / 21547.7%55.4%296 / 621 vs 119 / 215Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MusilRolik 2.25/Musil 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Musil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rolik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 11:20J. Rolik—911149113F. Musil—115121192
LApr 22 · 17:20J. Rolik—1110771F. Musil—91211113
WApr 22 · 16:50J. Rolik—1111113F. Musil—5590
LApr 17 · 15:50J. Rolik—1111115102F. Musil—813911123
WApr 6 · 11:20J. Rolik—118911113F. Musil—81111852
WApr 1 · 10:20J. Rolik—111116113F. Musil—61171172
LMar 4 · 09:25J. Rolik—851291F. Musil—111110113
WFeb 22 · 07:50J. Rolik—118138113F. Musil—911111172
LDec 10 · 12:50J. Rolik—7790F. Musil—1111113
LDec 8 · 19:50J. Rolik—10650F. Musil—1211113
J. Rolik10
LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik1.731113512113M. Nemec2.00911111482WSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:20P. Cibik1.50117611113J. Rolik2.5091111982
F. Musil10
WAug 28 · 13:55F. Musil1.6512912113J. Rolik2.1010111081WAug 28 · 12:50F. Musil1.61412116113J. Rolik2.20111051192WAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113WAug 28 · 10:50J. Brynych2.20711111162F. Musil1.61111348113LAug 24 · 13:28J. Rolik2.00913911113F. Musil1.73111111982WAug 24 · 12:50F. Musil1.447111212113M. Nemec2.63115141042LAug 24 · 10:50O. Sebek2.20111167113F. Musil1.6166111182WMay 11 · 17:50F. Musil1.61116911113R. Zeman2.2071111462WMay 11 · 16:50A. Krcil1.918790F. Musil1.801111113WMay 11 · 15:50F. Musil1.6711131411123R. Zeman2.10915169102
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