TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12482418
Played Aug 24Finished
Filip Musil
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71111512141210114
Michal Nemec
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:12 and never touched — 75.5% is still 75.5%
Graded at full timeFilip Musil to win
75.5%
75.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Musil above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 97 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Filip Musil at 75.5%
97 points played in total.
H2H Filip Musil 47–19 Michal Nemec Michal Nemec has won 19 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Musil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-19 in 66
Musil
Correct
gap of 28 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Musil 1477 vs Nemec 1350
Musil
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Musil 60% vs Nemec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Musil 80% vs Nemec 50%
Musil
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Musil -2 · Nemec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Musil) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMusil 1.44 / Nemec 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Musil)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12482418
Musil1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 23 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Nemec2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 77 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back18% 24 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMusil7wins
AwayNemec3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMusil leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMusil100%5 of 5
AwayNemec60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Musil5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S2Musil7Nemec3n = 10Musil took 7 of 10
S3Musil4Nemec6n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S4Musil5Nemec2n = 7Musil took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMusilNemecM − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.833.8+4.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMusilNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 215 vs 388 / 78955.4%49.2%119 / 215 vs 388 / 789Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MusilMusil 1.44/Nemec 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Musil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Musil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 11 · 14:20F. Musil—111211113M. Nemec—814561
WMay 10 · 10:00F. Musil—11118113M. Nemec—961181
WMay 10 · 06:20F. Musil—11118113M. Nemec—761161
LApr 22 · 15:50F. Musil—9118111M. Nemec—11711133
LApr 17 · 17:55F. Musil—8280M. Nemec—1111113
WApr 17 · 14:50F. Musil—1111113M. Nemec—8350
LApr 6 · 13:55F. Musil—910100M. Nemec—1112123
WApr 6 · 12:50F. Musil—61115113M. Nemec—1181381
WApr 1 · 14:00F. Musil—51311113M. Nemec—1111541
WApr 1 · 12:50F. Musil—111188113M. Nemec—76111192
F. Musil10
WAug 28 · 13:55F. Musil1.6512912113J. Rolik2.1010111081WAug 28 · 12:50F. Musil1.61412116113J. Rolik2.20111051192WAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113WAug 28 · 10:50J. Brynych2.20711111162F. Musil1.61111348113LAug 24 · 13:28J. Rolik2.00913911113F. Musil1.73111111982LAug 24 · 11:20J. Rolik2.25911149113F. Musil1.57115121192LAug 24 · 10:50O. Sebek2.20111167113F. Musil1.6166111182WMay 11 · 17:50F. Musil1.61116911113R. Zeman2.2071111462WMay 11 · 16:50A. Krcil1.918790F. Musil1.801111113WMay 11 · 15:50F. Musil1.6711131411123R. Zeman2.10915169102
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182LSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990WSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123
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