TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13032448
Played Aug 28Finished
Jaroslav Brynych
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111113114118611
Filip Musil
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeFilip Musil to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Brynych above · Filip Musil below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 93 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Filip Musil at 58.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Brynych 3–6 Filip Musil Jaroslav Brynych has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:52What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Musil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Musil
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brynych 1422 vs Musil 1453
Musil
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brynych 40% vs Musil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brynych 40% vs Musil 70%
Musil
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brynych +1 · Musil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Musil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Musil form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrynych 2.20 / Musil 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Musil)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13032448
Brynych2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 12 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back18% 5 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Musil1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 24 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBrynych3wins
AwayMusil6wins
2 of 9 to a deciderMusil leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrynych75%3 of 4
AwayMusil100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brynych4Musil5n = 9Musil took 5 of 9
S2Brynych2Musil7n = 9Musil took 7 of 9
S3Brynych4Musil5n = 9Musil took 5 of 9
S4Brynych4Musil2n = 6Brynych took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricBrynychMusilB − MBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match37.839.7−1.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrynychMusilBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 110 vs 119 / 21542.7%55.4%47 / 110 vs 119 / 215Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MusilBrynych 2.20/Musil 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Musil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Musil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LApr 6 · 10:50J. Brynych—1014411112F. Musil—1212118133
WMar 21 · 17:25J. Brynych—111112113F. Musil—3131061
LMar 14 · 12:55J. Brynych—991181F. Musil—11118113
LSep 27 · 10:50J. Brynych—85120F. Musil—1111143
WSep 6 · 12:50J. Brynych—14911113F. Musil—1211851
LAug 16 · 15:20J. Brynych—13920F. Musil—1511113
LAug 9 · 11:20J. Brynych—1112710102F. Musil—8101112123
LJun 14 · 10:50J. Brynych—8950F. Musil—1111113
WJan 22 · 20:20J. Brynych—11911113F. Musil—411991
J. Brynych10
LSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113LSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123LSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113WAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161WAug 28 · 12:20O. Sebek2.63411461J. Brynych1.4411711113LAug 28 · 11:50J. Rolik1.911111113J. Brynych1.808440WAug 16 · 13:20J. Brynych2.20911125113M. Nemec1.61119101162LAug 16 · 12:20J. Brynych3.001790R. Zeman1.361111113WAug 16 · 11:20J. Brynych2.381191011123M. Nemec1.53811126102
F. Musil10
WAug 28 · 13:55F. Musil1.6512912113J. Rolik2.1010111081WAug 28 · 12:50F. Musil1.61412116113J. Rolik2.20111051192WAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113LAug 24 · 13:28J. Rolik2.00913911113F. Musil1.73111111982WAug 24 · 12:50F. Musil1.447111212113M. Nemec2.63115141042LAug 24 · 11:20J. Rolik2.25911149113F. Musil1.57115121192LAug 24 · 10:50O. Sebek2.20111167113F. Musil1.6166111182WMay 11 · 17:50F. Musil1.61116911113R. Zeman2.2071111462WMay 11 · 16:50A. Krcil1.918790F. Musil1.801111113WMay 11 · 15:50F. Musil1.6711131411123R. Zeman2.10915169102
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