TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13035874
Played Aug 28Finished
Filip Musil
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12109111210118––
Jakub Rolik
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Musil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Musil above · Jakub Rolik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 83 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Filip Musil at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Filip Musil 21–19 Jakub Rolik Jakub Rolik has won 19 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:20What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Musil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-19 in 40
Musil
Correct
gap of 2 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Musil 1503 vs Rolik 1376
Musil
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Musil 80% vs Rolik 60%
Musil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Musil 70% vs Rolik 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Musil +3 · Rolik -1
Musil
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Musil) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rolik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMusil 1.65 / Rolik 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Musil)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13035874
Musil1.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 24 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Rolik2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 89 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back27% 33 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back18% 12 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMusil4wins
AwayRolik6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderRolik leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMusil33.3%1 of 3
AwayRolik57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Musil3Rolik7n = 10Rolik took 7 of 10
S2Musil7Rolik3n = 10Musil took 7 of 10
S3Musil4Rolik6n = 10Rolik took 6 of 10
S4Musil6Rolik3n = 9Musil took 6 of 9
S5Musil2Rolik5n = 7Rolik took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMusilRolikM − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.444.4−1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMusilRolikBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 217 vs 302 / 63054.8%47.9%119 / 217 vs 302 / 630Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MusilMusil 1.65/Rolik 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Musil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Musil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 12:50F. Musil—412116113J. Rolik—111051192
LAug 24 · 13:28F. Musil—111111982J. Rolik—913911113
LAug 24 · 11:20F. Musil—115121192J. Rolik—911149113
WApr 22 · 17:20F. Musil—91211113J. Rolik—1110771
LApr 22 · 16:50F. Musil—5590J. Rolik—1111113
WApr 17 · 15:50F. Musil—813911123J. Rolik—1111115102
LApr 6 · 11:20F. Musil—81111852J. Rolik—118911113
LApr 1 · 10:20F. Musil—61171172J. Rolik—111116113
WMar 4 · 09:25F. Musil—111110113J. Rolik—851291
LFeb 22 · 07:50F. Musil—911111172J. Rolik—118138113
F. Musil10
WAug 28 · 12:50F. Musil1.61412116113J. Rolik2.20111051192WAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113WAug 28 · 10:50J. Brynych2.20711111162F. Musil1.61111348113LAug 24 · 13:28J. Rolik2.00913911113F. Musil1.73111111982WAug 24 · 12:50F. Musil1.447111212113M. Nemec2.63115141042LAug 24 · 11:20J. Rolik2.25911149113F. Musil1.57115121192LAug 24 · 10:50O. Sebek2.20111167113F. Musil1.6166111182WMay 11 · 17:50F. Musil1.61116911113R. Zeman2.2071111462WMay 11 · 16:50A. Krcil1.918790F. Musil1.801111113WMay 11 · 15:50F. Musil1.6711131411123R. Zeman2.10915169102
J. Rolik10
LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982LAug 28 · 12:50F. Musil1.61412116113J. Rolik2.20111051192WAug 24 · 13:28J. Rolik2.00913911113F. Musil1.73111111982WAug 24 · 11:20J. Rolik2.25911149113F. Musil1.57115121192
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