TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12482043
Played Aug 24Finished
Jakub Rolik
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81110121311114911
Ondrej Sebek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Sebek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Rolik above · Ondrej Sebek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 100 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Ondrej Sebek at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Rolik 25–15 Ondrej Sebek Ondrej Sebek has won 15 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:56What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rolik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-15 in 40
Rolik
Wrong
gap of 10 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rolik 1306 vs Sebek 1292
Rolik
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rolik 40% vs Sebek 20%
Rolik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rolik 40% vs Sebek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rolik +1 · Sebek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Rolik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebek form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRolik 1.57 / Sebek 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Rolik)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #12482043
Rolik1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 88 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it81% 55 of 68
Sebek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog28% won 18 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRolik6wins
AwaySebek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRolik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRolik100%4 of 4
AwaySebek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rolik4Sebek6n = 10Sebek took 6 of 10
S2Rolik4Sebek6n = 10Sebek took 6 of 10
S3Rolik5Sebek5n = 10split evenly
S4Rolik7Sebek1n = 8Rolik took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRolikSebekR − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.137.3−0.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRolikSebekBasisWin rate · lifetime296 / 621 vs 187 / 37847.7%49.5%296 / 621 vs 187 / 378Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RolikRolik 1.57/Sebek 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.9%
Rolik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 9 · 19:50J. Rolik—581111113O. Sebek—11117842
LJun 4 · 13:20J. Rolik—81261182O. Sebek—1110119113
WJun 4 · 12:20J. Rolik—81111143O. Sebek—1199121
LMay 26 · 12:20J. Rolik—85100O. Sebek—1111123
WMay 21 · 10:20J. Rolik—11911113O. Sebek—611641
LMay 16 · 21:54J. Rolik—5860O. Sebek—1111113
LMay 16 · 20:55J. Rolik—271471O. Sebek—111112113
WMay 15 · 19:50J. Rolik—11156113O. Sebek—7131161
WMay 12 · 11:50J. Rolik—11511113O. Sebek—211771
WMay 5 · 11:20J. Rolik—11116133O. Sebek—9511111
J. Rolik10
LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik1.731113512113M. Nemec2.00911111482WSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:20P. Cibik1.50117611113J. Rolik2.5091111982
O. Sebek10
WSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113WSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133LSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191LSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113LAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161LAug 28 · 12:20O. Sebek2.63411461J. Brynych1.4411711113LAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113LAug 28 · 10:20O. Sebek2.2081111352J. Rolik1.61119911113LAug 24 · 13:59M. Nemec1.53911711113O. Sebek2.3811511932LAug 24 · 11:50M. Nemec1.33111012113O. Sebek3.256121051
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.