TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063829
Played Sep 2Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311119711113––
Michal Cesak
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Cesak to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Michal Cesak below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 76 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Michal Cesak at 69.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 16–26 Michal Cesak Michal Nemec has won 16 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:26What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cesak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-26 in 42
Cesak
Wrong
gap of 10 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1334 vs Cesak 1525
Cesak
Wrong
both rated, 192 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 0% vs Cesak 40%
Cesak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 40% vs Cesak 60%
Cesak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec -5 · Cesak -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Cesak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cesak form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 2.75 / Cesak 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Cesak)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13063829
Nemec2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 81 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back18% 25 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 72
Cesak1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 48 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it72% 36 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec4wins
AwayCesak6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCesak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCesak75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec2Cesak8n = 10Cesak took 8 of 10
S2Nemec5Cesak5n = 10split evenly
S3Nemec2Cesak8n = 10Cesak took 8 of 10
S4Nemec3Cesak3n = 6split evenly
S5Nemec3Cesak1n = 4Nemec took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecCesakN − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.040.0−4.0per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecCesakBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 774 vs 103 / 17848.6%57.9%376 / 774 vs 103 / 178Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CesakNemec 2.75/Cesak 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Cesak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 12:50M. Nemec—75110M. Cesak—1111133
WJun 16 · 14:20M. Nemec—119116113M. Cesak—61181172
LJun 11 · 16:50M. Nemec—911831M. Cesak—11511113
LMay 31 · 10:20M. Nemec—71161162M. Cesak—119117113
WMay 22 · 11:20M. Nemec—511117113M. Cesak—11631192
WMay 21 · 15:20M. Nemec—8111011113M. Cesak—11712882
LMay 15 · 14:00M. Nemec—8560M. Cesak—1111113
LMay 15 · 11:20M. Nemec—91050M. Cesak—1112113
LMay 8 · 15:20M. Nemec—61090M. Cesak—1112113
WApr 14 · 18:00M. Nemec—111110213M. Cesak—8912191
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182LSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990WSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123
M. Cesak10
WSep 2 · 17:30M. Nemec3.507870M. Cesak1.281111113LSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123WSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113LAug 26 · 17:20M. Juhasz1.8051111113M. Cesak1.91115991LAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660LAug 26 · 15:50S. Matousch3.0031111113M. Cesak1.36118741WAug 26 · 14:50M. Cesak1.73711911113M. Juhasz2.0011611582WAug 16 · 13:49R. Zeman2.0011117572M. Cesak1.73261111113WAug 16 · 12:50M. Nemec2.6375110M. Cesak1.441111133LAug 16 · 11:50M. Cesak1.5310760R. Zeman2.381211113
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