TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063523
Played Sep 2Finished
Pavel Cibik
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161159111210––
Michal Nemec
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:00 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 75 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 59.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 18–10 Michal Nemec Michal Nemec has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:00What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-10 in 28
Cibik
Correct
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1557 vs Nemec 1352
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 205 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 60% vs Nemec 20%
Cibik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 60% vs Nemec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik -2 · Nemec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Cibik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 1.67 / Nemec 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Cibik)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13063523
Cibik1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 61 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it75% 43 of 57
Nemec2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 81 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back18% 25 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik7wins
AwayNemec3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik66.7%6 of 9
AwayNemecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik9Nemec1n = 10Cibik took 9 of 10
S2Cibik5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S3Cibik5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S4Cibik3Nemec5n = 8Nemec took 5 of 8
S5Cibik4Nemec2n = 6Cibik took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikNemecC − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match44.441.2+3.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime296 / 660 vs 375 / 77144.9%48.6%296 / 660 vs 375 / 771Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikCibik 1.67/Nemec 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 13 · 20:25P. Cibik—10111111113M. Nemec—12881382
WJul 27 · 19:55P. Cibik—1111113M. Nemec—8380
WJul 25 · 13:55P. Cibik—111114113M. Nemec—881681
LJul 25 · 10:55P. Cibik—1151110122M. Nemec—611712143
LJul 15 · 10:20P. Cibik—11611582M. Nemec—811711113
WJul 14 · 13:55P. Cibik—1111810113M. Nemec—59111262
WJul 14 · 11:50P. Cibik—129412113M. Nemec—1011111062
WJul 13 · 14:00P. Cibik—1114113M. Nemec—31280
LJul 13 · 11:55P. Cibik—1169101M. Nemec—71111123
WJul 12 · 14:00P. Cibik—159211123M. Nemec—1311116102
P. Cibik10
LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2.1078110Z. Vyskocil1.671111133WSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123WSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113LSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881LSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113LSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182LSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990WSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123
Upcoming Matches
P. Cibik1 of 2 neutral
M. Nemec
Nothing scheduled
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