TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13023287
Played Aug 26Finished
Marek Dlask
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119911811119117
Michal Nemec
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Nemec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarek Dlask above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 97 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Michal Nemec at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Marek Dlask 24–20 Michal Nemec Michal Nemec has won 20 of their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:18What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dlask
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-20 in 44
Dlask
Correct
gap of 4 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dlask 1499 vs Nemec 1334
Dlask
Correct
both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dlask 20% vs Nemec 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dlask 40% vs Nemec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dlask -2 · Nemec -4
Nemec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dlask) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDlask 1.67 / Nemec 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Dlask)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13023287
Dlask1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 38 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it74% 25 of 34
Nemec2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 81 of 219
Down 0–1, comes back19% 25 of 133
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDlask5wins
AwayNemec5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDlask60%3 of 5
AwayNemec60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dlask5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S2Dlask5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S3Dlask3Nemec7n = 10Nemec took 7 of 10
S4Dlask3Nemec6n = 9Nemec took 6 of 9
S5Dlask4Nemec1n = 5Dlask took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDlaskNemecD − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.343.7−4.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDlaskNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 307 vs 392 / 79948.9%49.1%150 / 307 vs 392 / 799Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DlaskDlask 1.67/Nemec 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Dlask · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dlask won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 19:50M. Dlask—6111171M. Nemec—11139113
WAug 19 · 19:50M. Dlask—111129113M. Nemec—97111172
WAug 18 · 21:50M. Dlask—11113113M. Nemec—781161
LAug 18 · 20:50M. Dlask—127641M. Nemec—101111113
LAug 13 · 21:55M. Dlask—13112652M. Nemec—11111011113
WAug 13 · 19:25M. Dlask—10111012113M. Nemec—128121092
WAug 10 · 19:20M. Dlask—911118163M. Nemec—114611142
LAug 3 · 18:50M. Dlask—5780M. Nemec—1111113
WJul 29 · 21:54M. Dlask—128811113M. Nemec—101111962
LJul 29 · 18:50M. Dlask—711961M. Nemec—11911113
M. Dlask10
LAug 31 · 21:30M. Dlask1.60111241182Z. Dusek2.20714119113WAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113LAug 31 · 19:50Z. Dusek1.5011119113M. Dlask2.50661161LAug 31 · 18:50M. Dlask3.001112541L. Vich1.3651411113LAug 26 · 20:20M. Dlask1.5789100J. Rolik2.251111123LAug 26 · 19:20M. Dlask2.20261181R. Zeman1.6111118113WAug 26 · 18:20M. Dlask1.731111113M. Nemec2.009850LAug 25 · 21:25M. Dlask2.2061171182R. Zeman1.61118116113LAug 25 · 20:20J. Mach1.571111811113M. Dlask2.2599111342LAug 25 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011139113M. Dlask1.736111171
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182LAug 26 · 18:20M. Dlask1.731111113M. Nemec2.009850WAug 25 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011139113M. Dlask1.736111171
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