TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13102715
Played Sep 9Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711119119911411
Pavel Cibik
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:58 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 93 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 55.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 27–25 Pavel Cibik Pavel Cibik has won 25 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-25 in 52
Matousch
Wrong
gap of 2 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1365 vs Cibik 1474
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 20% vs Cibik 40%
Cibik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 20% vs Cibik 60%
Cibik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch -2 · Cibik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cibik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 1.91 / Cibik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cibik)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13102715
Matousch1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 19 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Cibik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 66 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it74% 48 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatousch4wins
AwayCibik6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatousch66.7%4 of 6
AwayCibik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch6Cibik4n = 10Matousch took 6 of 10
S2Matousch4Cibik6n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S3Matousch3Cibik7n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S4Matousch2Cibik5n = 7Cibik took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatouschCibikM − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.236.0−1.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 347 vs 304 / 67547.3%45%164 / 347 vs 304 / 675Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikMatousch 1.91/Cibik 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch—119371P. Cibik—81111113
LSep 1 · 10:20S. Matousch—118791P. Cibik—51111113
LAug 4 · 16:20S. Matousch—1011981P. Cibik—12711113
LJul 24 · 13:50S. Matousch—9990P. Cibik—1111113
WJul 24 · 12:50S. Matousch—1111113P. Cibik—7760
WJul 21 · 17:24S. Matousch—11126113P. Cibik—6101171
LJul 21 · 14:20S. Matousch—611851P. Cibik—11811113
WJul 9 · 17:25S. Matousch—11211113P. Cibik—511551
WJul 9 · 14:20S. Matousch—118136133P. Cibik—9111111112
LJul 1 · 18:00S. Matousch—5990P. Cibik—1111113
S. Matousch10
LSep 9 · 17:20M. Cesak1.571411133S. Matousch2.25128110LSep 9 · 16:20S. Matousch2.7578100M. Cesak1.401111123LSep 9 · 15:20S. Matousch1.8082131142Z. Dusek1.911111119113LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153
P. Cibik10
WSep 9 · 17:50Z. Dusek1.83111011662P. Cibik1.83812911113LSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek1.8351111113P. Cibik1.83118691WSep 9 · 15:50P. Cibik2.10115811113M. Cesak1.6781111662WSep 7 · 21:20R. Zeman2.025740P. Cibik1.701111113LSep 7 · 20:20P. Cibik1.611111103122R. Zeman2.20871211143LSep 7 · 19:20P. Cibik2.10811110Z. Vyskocil1.671113133WSep 7 · 18:20P. Cibik1.83113711113L. Vich1.8391111952LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113
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