TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103927
Played Sep 9Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8112111311119411
Zdenek Dusek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Matousch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Zdenek Dusek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 91 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Simon Matousch at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 1–2 Zdenek Dusek Simon Matousch has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:17What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Matousch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1357 vs Dusek 1361
Dusek
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 20% vs Dusek 60%
Dusek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 20% vs Dusek 50%
Dusek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch -3 · Dusek +2
Matousch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matousch)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 1.80 / Dusek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Matousch)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13103927
Matousch1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 32 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it75% 27 of 36
Dusek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 58 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMatousch1wins
AwayDusek2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderDusek leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch1Dusek2n = 3Dusek took 2 of 3
S2Matousch2Dusek1n = 3Matousch took 2 of 3
S3Matousch2Dusek1n = 3Matousch took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricMatouschDusekM − DBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match32.032.3−0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschDusekBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 344 vs 194 / 47046.8%41.3%161 / 344 vs 194 / 470Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatouschMatousch 1.80/Dusek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Matousch · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 31 · 18:20S. Matousch—1111123Z. Dusek—36100
LAug 10 · 17:28S. Matousch—81111862Z. Dusek—114811113
LAug 10 · 16:20S. Matousch—7650Z. Dusek—1111113
S. Matousch10
LSep 9 · 14:20S. Matousch1.9171111942P. Cibik1.80119911113LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153LSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791WAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113
Z. Dusek10
WSep 9 · 14:50M. Cesak2.00129781Z. Dusek1.73101111113WAug 31 · 21:30M. Dlask1.60111241182Z. Dusek2.20714119113LAug 31 · 20:50L. Vich1.7311714113Z. Dusek2.009111241WAug 31 · 19:50Z. Dusek1.5011119113M. Dlask2.50661161LAug 31 · 18:20S. Matousch2.251111123Z. Dusek1.5736100WAug 27 · 21:28Z. Dusek2.2511135113T. Barsa1.578111171LAug 27 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.61821113113Z. Dusek2.20111161152WAug 27 · 19:50Z. Dusek2.38118411113T. Barsa1.5361111562LAug 27 · 18:20T. Jr1.331111153Z. Dusek3.2546130LAug 24 · 21:23T. Jr1.361111123Z. Dusek3.0067100
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.