TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103685
Played Sep 9Finished
Pavel Cibik
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118511811116116
Michal Cesak
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:26 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Cesak to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Michal Cesak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 88 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Michal Cesak at 56.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 5–6 Michal Cesak Pavel Cibik has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:26What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cesak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1482 vs Cesak 1477
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 60% vs Cesak 40%
Cibik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 60% vs Cesak 40%
Cibik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik +2 · Cesak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cesak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cesak form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 2.10 / Cesak 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cibik)+1.8pp
TT Cup · #13103685
Cibik2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 70 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back25% 22 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 45
Cesak1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 48 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik5wins
AwayCesak5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik100%4 of 4
AwayCesak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik4Cesak6n = 10Cesak took 6 of 10
S2Cibik4Cesak6n = 10Cesak took 6 of 10
S3Cibik7Cesak3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S4Cibik1Cesak3n = 4Cesak took 3 of 4
S5Cibik2Cesak1n = 3Cibik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikCesakCibik − CesakBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.235.3+0.9per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikCesakBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 676 vs 102 / 17945.1%57%305 / 676 vs 102 / 179Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CesakCibik 2.10/Cesak 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cesak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 16:50P. Cibik—1151113123M. Cesak—711415102
WAug 4 · 14:50P. Cibik—1117113M. Cesak—81570
LJul 21 · 16:20P. Cibik—9990M. Cesak—1111113
LJul 9 · 15:50P. Cibik—10940M. Cesak—1211113
WJul 1 · 15:50P. Cibik—1111113M. Cesak—3960
WMay 10 · 14:20P. Cibik—1111113M. Cesak—9670
LMay 8 · 16:50P. Cibik—91411672M. Cesak—1112811113
WApr 2 · 14:50P. Cibik—1081111113M. Cesak—12115672
LFeb 22 · 14:55P. Cibik—691191M. Cesak—11119113
LFeb 22 · 12:20P. Cibik—9760M. Cesak—1111113
P. Cibik10
WSep 9 · 14:20S. Matousch1.9171111942P. Cibik1.80119911113WSep 7 · 21:20R. Zeman2.025740P. Cibik1.701111113LSep 7 · 20:20P. Cibik1.611111103122R. Zeman2.20871211143LSep 7 · 19:20P. Cibik2.10811110Z. Vyskocil1.671113133WSep 7 · 18:20P. Cibik1.83113711113L. Vich1.8391111952LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2.1078110Z. Vyskocil1.671111133WSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123
M. Cesak10
LSep 9 · 14:50M. Cesak2.00129781Z. Dusek1.73101111113WSep 2 · 17:30M. Nemec3.507870M. Cesak1.281111113LSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123WSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113LSep 2 · 14:50M. Nemec2.7513117113M. Cesak1.401191131LAug 26 · 17:20M. Juhasz1.8051111113M. Cesak1.91115991LAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660LAug 26 · 15:50S. Matousch3.0031111113M. Cesak1.36118741WAug 26 · 14:50M. Cesak1.73711911113M. Juhasz2.0011611582WAug 16 · 13:49R. Zeman2.0011117572M. Cesak1.73261111113
Upcoming Matches
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