Michal Cesak vs Simon Matousch 3-0

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13105434

Played Sep 9Finished

Michal Cesak

Home

1.57

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

14121181311––––

Simon Matousch

Away

2.25

At publish

Lost last 5

Form at publish

1–9Last 10Lost last 5

How it is goingMichal Cesak above · Simon Matousch below

Set 1 · 14-12

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 13-11

Point 69 set 3, 13-11

69 points played in total.

H2H Michal Cesak 14–5 Simon Matousch Simon Matousch has won 5 of their 19 meetings.

Last 10 · 9–1Same sideHead to head

Same-day rematch · 1h before this match

Cesak beat Matousch 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Cesak)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Matousch form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsCesak 1.57 / Matousch 2.25

Signal prob.62% / 38%

Edge (Cesak)+3.5pp

TT Cup · #13105434

Cesak1.57

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite59% won 48 of 81

Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24

Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52

Matousch2.25

10%won 1 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 5

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog30% won 19 of 63

Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 34

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeCesak9wins

AwayMatousch1wins

4 of 10 to a deciderCesak leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeCesak88.9%8 of 9

AwayMatouschn = 1, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Cesak9Matousch1n = 10Cesak took 9 of 10

S2Cesak6Matousch4n = 10Cesak took 6 of 10

S3Cesak8Matousch2n = 10Cesak took 8 of 10

S4Cesak1Matousch4n = 5Matousch took 4 of 5

S5Cesak4Matousch0n = 4Cesak took 4 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home550%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricCesakMatouschC − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.234.3+5.9per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricCesakMatouschBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 181 vs 161 / 34656.9%46.5%103 / 181 vs 161 / 346Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Cesak

Cesak 1.57/Matousch 2.25

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

62.4%

Cesak · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Cesak won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 9 · 16:20M. Cesak—1111123S. Matousch—78100

LAug 26 · 15:50M. Cesak—118741S. Matousch—31111113

WAug 6 · 15:20M. Cesak—1111113113S. Matousch—71361162

WAug 4 · 17:19M. Cesak—1214113S. Matousch—101270

WAug 4 · 15:20M. Cesak—1371214163S. Matousch—11111016142

WJul 21 · 15:50M. Cesak—811611113S. Matousch—11611752

WJul 9 · 16:20M. Cesak—1111113S. Matousch—6850

WJul 1 · 16:20M. Cesak—119111113S. Matousch—81171192

WJun 18 · 15:50M. Cesak—1114113S. Matousch—91260

WApr 2 · 15:50M. Cesak—1111113S. Matousch—8530

M. Cesak10

WSep 9 · 16:20S. Matousch2.7578100M. Cesak1.401111123 LSep 9 · 15:50P. Cibik2.10115811113M. Cesak1.6781111662 LSep 9 · 14:50M. Cesak2.00129781Z. Dusek1.73101111113 WSep 2 · 17:30M. Nemec3.507870M. Cesak1.281111113 LSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123 WSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113 LSep 2 · 14:50M. Nemec2.7513117113M. Cesak1.401191131 LAug 26 · 17:20M. Juhasz1.8051111113M. Cesak1.91115991 LAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660 LAug 26 · 15:50S. Matousch3.0031111113M. Cesak1.36118741

S. Matousch10

LSep 9 · 16:20S. Matousch2.7578100M. Cesak1.401111123 LSep 9 · 15:20S. Matousch1.8082131142Z. Dusek1.911111119113 LSep 9 · 14:20S. Matousch1.9171111942P. Cibik1.80119911113 LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530 LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113 WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100 LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113 LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102 LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121 WAug 26 · 15:50S. Matousch3.0031111113M. Cesak1.36118741

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