TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103802
Played Sep 9Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7118111012––––
Michal Cesak
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched — 70.6% is still 70.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Cesak to win
70.6%
70.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Michal Cesak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 59 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Michal Cesak at 70.6%
59 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 5–13 Michal Cesak Simon Matousch has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:47What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cesak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-13 in 18
Cesak
Correct
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1347 vs Cesak 1466
Cesak
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 20% vs Cesak 40%
Cesak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 10% vs Cesak 30%
Cesak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch -4 · Cesak -2
Matousch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Cesak) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cesak form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 2.75 / Cesak 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Cesak)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13103802
Matousch2.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 19 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Cesak1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 48 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatousch1wins
AwayCesak9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCesak leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatouschn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCesak87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch2Cesak8n = 10Cesak took 8 of 10
S2Matousch4Cesak6n = 10Cesak took 6 of 10
S3Matousch2Cesak8n = 10Cesak took 8 of 10
S4Matousch5Cesak1n = 6Matousch took 5 of 6
S5Matousch0Cesak5n = 5Cesak took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatouschCesakM − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.741.8−6.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschCesakBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 345 vs 102 / 18046.7%56.7%161 / 345 vs 102 / 180Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CesakMatousch 2.75/Cesak 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.8%
Cesak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cesak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 15:50S. Matousch—31111113M. Cesak—118741
LAug 6 · 15:20S. Matousch—71361162M. Cesak—1111113113
LAug 4 · 17:19S. Matousch—101270M. Cesak—1214113
LAug 4 · 15:20S. Matousch—11111016142M. Cesak—1371214163
LJul 21 · 15:50S. Matousch—11611752M. Cesak—811611113
LJul 9 · 16:20S. Matousch—6850M. Cesak—1111113
LJul 1 · 16:20S. Matousch—81171192M. Cesak—119111113
LJun 18 · 15:50S. Matousch—91260M. Cesak—1114113
LApr 2 · 15:50S. Matousch—8530M. Cesak—1111113
LSep 4 · 16:10S. Matousch—11751152M. Cesak—811119113
S. Matousch10
LSep 9 · 15:20S. Matousch1.8082131142Z. Dusek1.911111119113LSep 9 · 14:20S. Matousch1.9171111942P. Cibik1.80119911113LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153LSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791
M. Cesak10
LSep 9 · 15:50P. Cibik2.10115811113M. Cesak1.6781111662LSep 9 · 14:50M. Cesak2.00129781Z. Dusek1.73101111113WSep 2 · 17:30M. Nemec3.507870M. Cesak1.281111113LSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123WSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113LSep 2 · 14:50M. Nemec2.7513117113M. Cesak1.401191131LAug 26 · 17:20M. Juhasz1.8051111113M. Cesak1.91115991LAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660LAug 26 · 15:50S. Matousch3.0031111113M. Cesak1.36118741WAug 26 · 14:50M. Cesak1.73711911113M. Juhasz2.0011611582
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