TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13117021
Played Sep 11Finished
Pavel Cibik
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116811119118––
Michal Kolbusovsky
Away
3.35
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:24 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Michal Kolbusovsky below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 59.4%
75 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 9–6 Michal Kolbusovsky Michal Kolbusovsky has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Cibik beat Kolbusovsky 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:24What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (73%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Cibik
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1491 vs Kolbusovsky 1405
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 80% vs Kolbusovsky 40%
Cibik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 70% vs Kolbusovsky 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik +4 · Kolbusovsky -1
Cibik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Cibik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbusovsky form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (30%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 1.25 / Kolbusovsky 3.35
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Cibik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13117021
Cibik1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 65 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it74% 48 of 65
Kolbusovsky3.35
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 58 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik7wins
AwayKolbusovsky3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik71.4%5 of 7
AwayKolbusovsky33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik7Kolbusovsky3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S2Cibik6Kolbusovsky4n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S3Cibik7Kolbusovsky3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S4Cibik4Kolbusovsky4n = 8split evenly
S5Cibik3Kolbusovsky3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikKolbusovskyC − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.537.3+6.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikKolbusovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime307 / 678 vs 211 / 45045.3%46.9%307 / 678 vs 211 / 450Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikCibik 1.25/Kolbusovsky 3.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 20:50P. Cibik—591111113M. Kolbusovsky—11116852
LSep 2 · 18:00P. Cibik—11811852M. Kolbusovsky—911511113
LSep 2 · 14:20P. Cibik—111179102M. Kolbusovsky—741111123
WJul 24 · 11:20P. Cibik—1112116113M. Kolbusovsky—410131172
WJul 15 · 14:00P. Cibik—812912113M. Kolbusovsky—1110111062
WJul 15 · 11:50P. Cibik—1111113M. Kolbusovsky—9560
WJul 14 · 10:20P. Cibik—11911113M. Kolbusovsky—811251
WJul 8 · 12:50P. Cibik—11811113M. Kolbusovsky—611891
LJun 30 · 12:50P. Cibik—71111882M. Kolbusovsky—116811113
WJun 29 · 12:50P. Cibik—1111113M. Kolbusovsky—6950
P. Cibik10
WSep 11 · 20:50M. Kolbusovsky2.6311116852P. Cibik1.44591111113WSep 11 · 19:50P. Cibik1.571191011113M. Nemec2.2551112892WSep 11 · 18:20J. Rolik2.254980P. Cibik1.571111113WSep 9 · 17:50Z. Dusek1.83111011662P. Cibik1.83812911113LSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek1.8351111113P. Cibik1.83118691WSep 9 · 15:50P. Cibik2.10115811113M. Cesak1.6781111662WSep 9 · 14:20S. Matousch1.9171111942P. Cibik1.80119911113WSep 7 · 21:20R. Zeman2.025740P. Cibik1.701111113LSep 7 · 20:20P. Cibik1.611111103122R. Zeman2.20871211143LSep 7 · 19:20P. Cibik2.10811110Z. Vyskocil1.671113133
M. Kolbusovsky10
LSep 11 · 20:50M. Kolbusovsky2.6311116852P. Cibik1.44591111113WSep 11 · 19:20J. Rolik1.441181171M. Kolbusovsky2.6371113113WSep 11 · 18:50M. Nemec1.61812611102M. Kolbusovsky2.201110114123LSep 10 · 13:19M. Kolbusovsky1.911211913122O. Sebek1.801461111143LSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec1.531112113M. Kolbusovsky2.3881060WSep 10 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky1.73101211113L. Pour2.001210781WSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek1.7398111162M. Kolbusovsky2.00111176113WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171WSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282LSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113
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