TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13113485
Played Sep 11Finished
Jakub Rolik
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411911811––––
Pavel Cibik
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:32 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Rolik above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 64.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Rolik 6–10 Pavel Cibik Jakub Rolik has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:32What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Cibik
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rolik 1352 vs Cibik 1459
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rolik 20% vs Cibik 80%
Cibik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rolik 40% vs Cibik 60%
Cibik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rolik -1 · Cibik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Cibik) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRolik 2.25 / Cibik 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Cibik)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13113485
Rolik2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 89 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back28% 34 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back19% 12 of 65
Cibik1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 65 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it74% 48 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRolik2wins
AwayCibik8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRolik25%1 of 4
AwayCibik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rolik4Cibik6n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S2Rolik3Cibik7n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S3Rolik3Cibik7n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S4Rolik4Cibik5n = 9Cibik took 5 of 9
S5Rolik2Cibik3n = 5Cibik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRolikCibikR − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.745.2−5.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRolikCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 647 vs 307 / 67947.9%45.2%310 / 647 vs 307 / 679Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikRolik 2.25/Cibik 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 15 · 12:50J. Rolik—11461582P. Cibik—9111113113
LJul 14 · 12:50J. Rolik—118661P. Cibik—81111113
LJul 12 · 12:50J. Rolik—612111132P. Cibik—111494113
WJul 8 · 13:50J. Rolik—119117133P. Cibik—811911112
LJul 8 · 11:50J. Rolik—812981P. Cibik—111011113
LJun 30 · 13:30J. Rolik—1295131P. Cibik—101111153
LJun 30 · 11:50J. Rolik—6880P. Cibik—1111113
LJun 29 · 11:50J. Rolik—1011671P. Cibik—12911113
LJun 28 · 11:50J. Rolik—91171192P. Cibik—119118113
WJun 26 · 14:00J. Rolik—791111113P. Cibik—11116852
J. Rolik10
LSep 10 · 21:25M. Nemec1.8516911113J. Rolik1.851411881WSep 10 · 20:20M. Dlask1.579151381J. Rolik2.25111315113LSep 10 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011119173J. Rolik1.735711151LSep 10 · 18:50J. Rolik2.388460R. Zeman1.531111113LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133
P. Cibik10
WSep 9 · 17:50Z. Dusek1.83111011662P. Cibik1.83812911113LSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek1.8351111113P. Cibik1.83118691WSep 9 · 15:50P. Cibik2.10115811113M. Cesak1.6781111662WSep 9 · 14:20S. Matousch1.9171111942P. Cibik1.80119911113WSep 7 · 21:20R. Zeman2.025740P. Cibik1.701111113LSep 7 · 20:20P. Cibik1.611111103122R. Zeman2.20871211143LSep 7 · 19:20P. Cibik2.10811110Z. Vyskocil1.671113133WSep 7 · 18:20P. Cibik1.83113711113L. Vich1.8391111952LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113
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