Michal Nemec vs Jakub Rolik 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13111583

Played Sep 10Finished

Michal Nemec

Home

1.85

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1614911118118––

Jakub Rolik

Away

1.85

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Jakub Rolik below

Set 1 · 16-14

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 11-8

Set 4 · 11-8

Point 88 set 4, 11-8

88 points played in total.

H2H Michal Nemec 86–81 Jakub Rolik Jakub Rolik has won 81 of their 167 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7SplitHead to head

Same-day rematch · 2h before this match

Nemec beat Rolik 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rolik)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Rolik form (20%) is below what odds imply (54%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsNemec 1.85 / Rolik 1.85

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Rolik)+4.0pp

TT Cup · #13111583

Nemec1.85

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

Rolik1.85

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeNemec3wins

AwayRolik7wins

4 of 10 to a deciderRolik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeNemec50%2 of 4

AwayRolik83.3%5 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Nemec4Rolik6n = 10Rolik took 6 of 10

S2Nemec5Rolik5n = 10split evenly

S3Nemec4Rolik6n = 10Rolik took 6 of 10

S4Nemec6Rolik2n = 8Nemec took 6 of 8

S5Nemec0Rolik4n = 4Rolik took 4 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away440%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricNemecRolikN − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.542.4−0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricNemecRolikBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 777 vs 310 / 64648%48%373 / 777 vs 310 / 646Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.3per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Rolik

Nemec 1.85/Rolik 1.85

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Rolik · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Nemec won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 10 · 19:50M. Nemec—11119173J. Rolik—5711151

LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec—1171191J. Rolik—31113113

LSep 3 · 17:55M. Nemec—10990J. Rolik—1211113

LSep 3 · 14:20M. Nemec—911111482J. Rolik—1113512113

LAug 26 · 19:50M. Nemec—105111112J. Rolik—121189113

WAug 24 · 10:20M. Nemec—1611113J. Rolik—14640

LAug 19 · 21:28M. Nemec—1115101192J. Rolik—1313125113

LAug 19 · 18:20M. Nemec—15921162J. Rolik—1311119113

LAug 18 · 19:50M. Nemec—1011861J. Rolik—12811113

WAug 10 · 20:20M. Nemec—51111113J. Rolik—117991

M. Nemec10

LSep 10 · 20:50R. Zeman1.441114123M. Nemec2.63612100 WSep 10 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011119173J. Rolik1.735711151 LSep 10 · 18:20M. Dlask1.67121169113M. Nemec2.10109111152 WSep 10 · 13:49M. Nemec1.67771113123L. Pour2.101111511102 WSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec1.531112113M. Kolbusovsky2.3881060 WSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek3.252850M. Nemec1.331111113 LSep 10 · 10:50L. Pour1.91111211123M. Nemec1.8061013101 LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183 LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113 WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113

J. Rolik10

WSep 10 · 20:20M. Dlask1.579151381J. Rolik2.25111315113 LSep 10 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011119173J. Rolik1.735711151 LSep 10 · 18:50J. Rolik2.388460R. Zeman1.531111113 LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260 LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282 WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113 WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462 WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990 LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133 WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982

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