TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106492
Played Sep 10Finished
Ondrej Sebek
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211811511––––
Michal Nemec
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:13 and never touched — 74.4% is still 74.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Nemec to win
74.4%
74.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Sebek above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 48 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Michal Nemec at 74.4%
48 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Sebek 2–17 Michal Nemec Ondrej Sebek has won 2 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:13What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Nemec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-17 in 19
Nemec
Correct
gap of 15 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebek 1274 vs Nemec 1304
Nemec
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebek 40% vs Nemec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebek 20% vs Nemec 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebek -1 · Nemec -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Nemec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebek 3.25 / Nemec 1.33
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Nemec)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13106492
Sebek3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog28% won 17 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Nemec1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 88 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it78% 59 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebek1wins
AwayNemec9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNemec leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebek25%1 of 4
AwayNemec100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebek4Nemec6n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S2Sebek3Nemec7n = 10Nemec took 7 of 10
S3Sebek3Nemec7n = 10Nemec took 7 of 10
S4Sebek2Nemec5n = 7Nemec took 5 of 7
S5Sebek0Nemec3n = 3Nemec took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSebekNemecS − NBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.441.6−9.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSebekNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime186 / 372 vs 375 / 77850%48.2%186 / 372 vs 375 / 778Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NemecSebek 3.25/Nemec 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.4%
Nemec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 13:59O. Sebek—11511932M. Nemec—911711113
LAug 24 · 11:50O. Sebek—6121051M. Nemec—111012113
LJun 9 · 21:28O. Sebek—111111892M. Nemec—138711113
LJun 9 · 20:20O. Sebek—6660M. Nemec—1111113
LJun 4 · 11:50O. Sebek—111661M. Nemec—91111113
WMay 26 · 13:50O. Sebek—11811123M. Nemec—9119101
LMay 26 · 11:20O. Sebek—75100M. Nemec—1111123
LMar 26 · 12:50O. Sebek—11961172M. Nemec—811119113
LMar 24 · 11:20O. Sebek—8860M. Nemec—1111113
LMar 20 · 12:20O. Sebek—711481M. Nemec—11911113
O. Sebek10
LSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek1.7398111162M. Kolbusovsky2.00111176113WSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113WSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133LSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191LSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113LAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161LAug 28 · 12:20O. Sebek2.63411461J. Brynych1.4411711113LAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113LAug 28 · 10:20O. Sebek2.2081111352J. Rolik1.61119911113LAug 24 · 13:59M. Nemec1.53911711113O. Sebek2.3811511932
M. Nemec10
LSep 10 · 10:50L. Pour1.91111211123M. Nemec1.8061013101LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191WAug 24 · 13:59M. Nemec1.53911711113O. Sebek2.3811511932
Upcoming Matches
O. Sebek
Nothing scheduled
M. Nemec1 of 4 neutral
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