TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106448
Played Sep 10Finished
Ondrej Sebek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911811117116611
Michal Kolbusovsky
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOndrej Sebek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Sebek above · Michal Kolbusovsky below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Ondrej Sebek at 54.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Sebek 38–24 Michal Kolbusovsky Michal Kolbusovsky has won 24 of their 62 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:53What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sebek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-24 in 62
Sebek
Wrong
gap of 14 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebek 1282 vs Kolbusovsky 1379
Kolbusovsky
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebek 40% vs Kolbusovsky 80%
Kolbusovsky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebek 30% vs Kolbusovsky 60%
Kolbusovsky
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebek +2 · Kolbusovsky +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sebek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbusovsky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebek 1.73 / Kolbusovsky 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sebek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13106448
Sebek1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite46% won 10 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it50% 6 of 12
Kolbusovsky2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 57 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebek5wins
AwayKolbusovsky5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebek62.5%5 of 8
AwayKolbusovskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebek8Kolbusovsky2n = 10Sebek took 8 of 10
S2Sebek5Kolbusovsky5n = 10split evenly
S3Sebek5Kolbusovsky5n = 10split evenly
S4Sebek2Kolbusovsky6n = 8Kolbusovsky took 6 of 8
S5Sebek2Kolbusovsky2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSebekKolbusovskyS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.038.2+1.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSebekKolbusovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 384 vs 210 / 44749.5%47%190 / 384 vs 210 / 447Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SebekSebek 1.73/Kolbusovsky 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Sebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolbusovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 4 · 10:50O. Sebek—911981M. Kolbusovsky—11311113
WMay 26 · 10:20O. Sebek—1161110113M. Kolbusovsky—71141292
WMay 21 · 13:30O. Sebek—1112113M. Kolbusovsky—61060
WMay 21 · 11:20O. Sebek—12119113M. Kolbusovsky—1071171
WMay 17 · 10:00O. Sebek—1111113M. Kolbusovsky—8690
LMay 17 · 07:50O. Sebek—118951M. Kolbusovsky—91111113
LMay 12 · 12:20O. Sebek—741181M. Kolbusovsky—11113113
LMay 5 · 12:50O. Sebek—11811692M. Kolbusovsky—811411113
LApr 30 · 15:20O. Sebek—111368142M. Kolbusovsky—8111111163
WApr 19 · 06:20O. Sebek—113811113M. Kolbusovsky—81111762
O. Sebek10
LSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek3.252850M. Nemec1.331111113WSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113WSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133LSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191LSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113LAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161LAug 28 · 12:20O. Sebek2.63411461J. Brynych1.4411711113LAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113LAug 28 · 10:20O. Sebek2.2081111352J. Rolik1.61119911113LAug 24 · 13:59M. Nemec1.53911711113O. Sebek2.3811511932
M. Kolbusovsky10
WSep 10 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky1.73101211113L. Pour2.001210781WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171WSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282LSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113WSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182WSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38111158113M. Nemec1.5368111132LSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113WSep 2 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00741111123P. Cibik1.36111179102LAug 11 · 10:04M. Kolbusovsky2.251013781S. Matousch1.57121111113
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