TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106842
Played Sep 10Finished
Michal Kolbusovsky
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121210117118––
Lukas Pour
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:03 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Kolbusovsky to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Lukas Pour below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 81 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Michal Kolbusovsky at 54.9%
81 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 10–5 Lukas Pour Lukas Pour has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:03What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolbusovsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Kolbusovsky
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1388 vs Pour 1294
Kolbusovsky
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 80% vs Pour 60%
Kolbusovsky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 70% vs Pour 40%
Kolbusovsky
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky +3 · Pour +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kolbusovsky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbusovsky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 1.73 / Pour 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kolbusovsky)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13106842
Kolbusovsky1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite40% won 6 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it56% 5 of 9
Pour2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 10 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky6wins
AwayPour4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKolbusovsky leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovsky75%3 of 4
AwayPour50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky4Pour6n = 10Pour took 6 of 10
S2Kolbusovsky6Pour4n = 10Kolbusovsky took 6 of 10
S3Kolbusovsky5Pour5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolbusovsky3Pour5n = 8Pour took 5 of 8
S5Kolbusovsky4Pour1n = 5Kolbusovsky took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbusovskyPourK − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.441.3−0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskyPourBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 444 vs 70 / 15746.9%44.6%208 / 444 vs 70 / 157Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolbusovskyKolbusovsky 1.73/Pour 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Kolbusovsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolbusovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 20 · 11:25M. Kolbusovsky—129128113L. Pour—1011101162
WJun 14 · 08:20M. Kolbusovsky—5111111113L. Pour—11813892
WMay 17 · 06:20M. Kolbusovsky—1111118113L. Pour—87131192
WMay 10 · 09:30M. Kolbusovsky—1111143L. Pour—88120
LMay 10 · 06:50M. Kolbusovsky—661171L. Pour—11117113
WApr 30 · 16:50M. Kolbusovsky—81111113L. Pour—118561
LMar 22 · 09:50M. Kolbusovsky—11116942L. Pour—361111113
LMar 6 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky—31130L. Pour—1113113
WFeb 24 · 18:25M. Kolbusovsky—712812143L. Pour—11101110122
LFeb 24 · 16:50M. Kolbusovsky—961171L. Pour—11116113
M. Kolbusovsky10
WSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek1.7398111162M. Kolbusovsky2.00111176113WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171WSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282LSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113WSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182WSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38111158113M. Nemec1.5368111132LSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113WSep 2 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00741111123P. Cibik1.36111179102LAug 11 · 10:04M. Kolbusovsky2.251013781S. Matousch1.57121111113
L. Pour10
WSep 10 · 12:20O. Sebek2.006990L. Pour1.731111113WSep 10 · 10:50L. Pour1.91111211123M. Nemec1.8061013101WAug 2 · 13:28L. Pour2.3812118113J. Rolik1.531061121WAug 2 · 12:20L. Pour1.831412116113J. Rolik1.83161091182LAug 2 · 11:20L. Pour3.0011301182R. Zeman1.36911118113LAug 2 · 10:20L. Pour1.8396111162M. Nemec1.83111153113LJul 26 · 13:26J. Brynych1.601211113L. Pour2.2010650LJul 26 · 12:20J. Brynych1.4412115113L. Pour2.631081181LJul 26 · 11:50R. Zeman1.4071211113L. Pour2.751110971LJul 26 · 10:50L. Pour1.80311581M. Nemec1.9111511113
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