TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12301979
Played Jul 26Finished
Lukas Pour
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311115511811––
Michal Nemec
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Nemec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Pour above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 65 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Michal Nemec at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Pour 14–13 Michal Nemec Michal Nemec has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:36What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pour
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-13 in 27
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pour 1341 vs Nemec 1363
Nemec
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pour 40% vs Nemec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pour 30% vs Nemec 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pour +2 · Nemec -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pour) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPour 1.80 / Nemec 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pour)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12301979
Pour1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite44% won 22 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it74% 20 of 27
Nemec1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 70 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePour3wins
AwayNemec7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNemec leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePour66.7%2 of 3
AwayNemec85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pour3Nemec7n = 10Nemec took 7 of 10
S2Pour5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S3Pour6Nemec4n = 10Pour took 6 of 10
S4Pour5Nemec3n = 8Pour took 5 of 8
S5Pour0Nemec4n = 4Nemec took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPourNemecP − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.940.7−0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPourNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 152 vs 405 / 78545.4%51.6%69 / 152 vs 405 / 785Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PourPour 1.80/Nemec 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pour · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 19 · 11:50L. Pour—9770M. Nemec—1111113
LMay 10 · 07:50L. Pour—151511792M. Nemec—1713311113
LApr 23 · 15:50L. Pour—47111182M. Nemec—111193113
LApr 4 · 14:35L. Pour—881161M. Nemec—11113113
WApr 4 · 11:55L. Pour—1111113M. Nemec—5940
LMar 29 · 11:55L. Pour—1011881M. Nemec—12711113
LMar 22 · 10:55L. Pour—111181362M. Nemec—6131111113
WMar 22 · 08:20L. Pour—15213133M. Nemec—131111111
LFeb 16 · 14:30L. Pour—112101162M. Nemec—1110123113
WFeb 16 · 11:20L. Pour—91111123M. Nemec—1149101
L. Pour10
WAug 2 · 13:28L. Pour2.3812118113J. Rolik1.531061121WAug 2 · 12:20L. Pour1.831412116113J. Rolik1.83161091182LAug 2 · 11:20L. Pour3.0011301182R. Zeman1.36911118113LAug 2 · 10:20L. Pour1.8396111162M. Nemec1.83111153113LJul 26 · 13:26J. Brynych1.601211113L. Pour2.2010650LJul 26 · 12:20J. Brynych1.4412115113L. Pour2.631081181LJul 26 · 11:50R. Zeman1.4071211113L. Pour2.751110971WJul 19 · 13:23L. Pour1.911111113J. Rolik1.807480WJul 19 · 12:20J. Rolik1.80711691L. Pour1.9111911113LJul 19 · 11:50M. Nemec1.911111113L. Pour1.809770
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182WAug 2 · 10:20L. Pour1.8396111162M. Nemec1.83111153113WJul 19 · 11:50M. Nemec1.911111113L. Pour1.809770
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