TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12348300
Played Aug 2Finished
Lukas Pour
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911611115113611
Michal Nemec
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Nemec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Pour above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 84 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Michal Nemec at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Pour 14–15 Michal Nemec Lukas Pour has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:05What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Nemec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-15 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pour 1245 vs Nemec 1361
Nemec
Correct
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pour 20% vs Nemec 40%
Nemec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pour 20% vs Nemec 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pour -4 · Nemec -2
Pour
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nemec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPour 1.83 / Nemec 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Nemec)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12348300
Pour1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Nemec1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePour2wins
AwayNemec8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNemec leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePour66.7%2 of 3
AwayNemec100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pour3Nemec7n = 10Nemec took 7 of 10
S2Pour4Nemec6n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S3Pour6Nemec4n = 10Pour took 6 of 10
S4Pour4Nemec4n = 8split evenly
S5Pour0Nemec4n = 4Nemec took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPourNemecP − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.640.5−1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPourNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 153 vs 403 / 78943.8%51.1%67 / 153 vs 403 / 789Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NemecPour 1.83/Nemec 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Nemec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 10:20L. Pour—96111162M. Nemec—111153113
LJul 26 · 10:50L. Pour—311581M. Nemec—11511113
LJul 19 · 11:50L. Pour—9770M. Nemec—1111113
LMay 10 · 07:50L. Pour—151511792M. Nemec—1713311113
LApr 23 · 15:50L. Pour—47111182M. Nemec—111193113
LApr 4 · 14:35L. Pour—881161M. Nemec—11113113
WApr 4 · 11:55L. Pour—1111113M. Nemec—5940
LMar 29 · 11:55L. Pour—1011881M. Nemec—12711113
LMar 22 · 10:55L. Pour—111181362M. Nemec—6131111113
WMar 22 · 08:20L. Pour—15213133M. Nemec—131111111
L. Pour10
WAug 2 · 13:28L. Pour2.3812118113J. Rolik1.531061121WAug 2 · 12:20L. Pour1.831412116113J. Rolik1.83161091182LAug 2 · 11:20L. Pour3.0011301182R. Zeman1.36911118113LJul 26 · 13:26J. Brynych1.601211113L. Pour2.2010650LJul 26 · 12:20J. Brynych1.4412115113L. Pour2.631081181LJul 26 · 11:50R. Zeman1.4071211113L. Pour2.751110971LJul 26 · 10:50L. Pour1.80311581M. Nemec1.9111511113WJul 19 · 13:23L. Pour1.911111113J. Rolik1.807480WJul 19 · 12:20J. Rolik1.80711691L. Pour1.9111911113LJul 19 · 11:50M. Nemec1.911111113L. Pour1.809770
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182WJul 26 · 10:50L. Pour1.80311581M. Nemec1.9111511113WJul 19 · 11:50M. Nemec1.911111113L. Pour1.809770
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