TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12348301
Played Aug 2Finished
Lukas Pour
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119311011118811
Radek Zeman
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 71.8% is still 71.8%
Graded at full timeRadek Zeman to win
71.8%
71.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Pour above · Radek Zeman below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 0-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 83 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Radek Zeman at 71.8%
83 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Pour 8–16 Radek Zeman Lukas Pour has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Zeman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-16 in 24
Zeman
Correct
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pour 1245 vs Zeman 1531
Zeman
Correct
both rated, 287 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pour 0% vs Zeman 100%
Zeman
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pour 20% vs Zeman 80%
Zeman
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pour -5 · Zeman +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Zeman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPour 3.00 / Zeman 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Zeman)+3.0pp
TT Cup · #12348301
Pour3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 14 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Zeman1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 110 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it89% 63 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it78% 82 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePour4wins
AwayZeman6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZeman leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePour66.7%2 of 3
AwayZeman71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pour3Zeman7n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S2Pour5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S3Pour3Zeman7n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S4Pour1Zeman3n = 4Zeman took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPourZemanP − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.335.0−1.7per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPourZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 153 vs 318 / 60243.8%52.8%67 / 153 vs 318 / 602Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanPour 3.00/Zeman 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.8%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 26 · 11:50L. Pour—1110971R. Zeman—71211113
LApr 23 · 14:50L. Pour—9118111R. Zeman—11511133
LApr 5 · 10:20L. Pour—61190R. Zeman—1113113
LApr 4 · 10:55L. Pour—10880R. Zeman—1211113
WMar 15 · 17:20L. Pour—411115113R. Zeman—11681192
LFeb 27 · 21:50L. Pour—8750R. Zeman—1111113
WJan 18 · 10:25L. Pour—911711153R. Zeman—117114132
WJan 18 · 07:20L. Pour—1111113R. Zeman—5490
LDec 7 · 09:20L. Pour—67110R. Zeman—1111133
WAug 10 · 12:20L. Pour—1111113R. Zeman—8870
L. Pour10
WAug 2 · 13:28L. Pour2.3812118113J. Rolik1.531061121WAug 2 · 12:20L. Pour1.831412116113J. Rolik1.83161091182LAug 2 · 10:20L. Pour1.8396111162M. Nemec1.83111153113LJul 26 · 13:26J. Brynych1.601211113L. Pour2.2010650LJul 26 · 12:20J. Brynych1.4412115113L. Pour2.631081181LJul 26 · 11:50R. Zeman1.4071211113L. Pour2.751110971LJul 26 · 10:50L. Pour1.80311581M. Nemec1.9111511113WJul 19 · 13:23L. Pour1.911111113J. Rolik1.807480WJul 19 · 12:20J. Rolik1.80711691L. Pour1.9111911113LJul 19 · 11:50M. Nemec1.911111113L. Pour1.809770
R. Zeman10
LSep 7 · 21:20R. Zeman2.025740P. Cibik1.701111113WSep 7 · 20:20P. Cibik1.611111103122R. Zeman2.20871211143LSep 7 · 19:50L. Vich1.611111113R. Zeman2.206640LSep 7 · 18:50R. Zeman2.7581070Z. Vyskocil1.401112113WSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:20R. Zeman2.1071260Z. Vyskocil1.671114113LSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113LSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260WJul 26 · 11:50R. Zeman1.4071211113L. Pour2.751110971
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