TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106852
Played Sep 10Finished
Ondrej Sebek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911911––––
Lukas Pour
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:03 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Pour to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Sebek above · Lukas Pour below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 57 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Pour at 54.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Sebek 6–10 Lukas Pour Ondrej Sebek has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pour
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Pour
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebek 1260 vs Pour 1285
Pour
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebek 40% vs Pour 60%
Pour
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebek 20% vs Pour 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebek -2 · Pour -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pour)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebek 2.00 / Pour 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pour)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13106852
Sebek2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog28% won 17 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Pour1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite32% won 10 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it62% 8 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebek4wins
AwayPour6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPour leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebek100%3 of 3
AwayPour85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebek3Pour7n = 10Pour took 7 of 10
S2Sebek6Pour4n = 10Sebek took 6 of 10
S3Sebek3Pour7n = 10Pour took 7 of 10
S4Sebek3Pour3n = 6split evenly
S5Sebek2Pour1n = 3Sebek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSebekPourS − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.837.9−4.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSebekPourBasisWin rate · lifetime186 / 373 vs 70 / 15849.9%44.3%186 / 373 vs 70 / 158Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PourSebek 2.00/Pour 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Pour · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pour won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 17 · 08:20O. Sebek—1112113L. Pour—81080
WApr 30 · 17:20O. Sebek—0111011113L. Pour—11912852
LApr 30 · 14:20O. Sebek—811691L. Pour—11811113
WMar 6 · 17:50O. Sebek—1111123L. Pour—67100
LMar 6 · 11:50O. Sebek—511991L. Pour—11911113
LFeb 17 · 18:50O. Sebek—61050L. Pour—1112113
LFeb 17 · 17:20O. Sebek—871151L. Pour—11119113
LFeb 13 · 09:20O. Sebek—71171152L. Pour—117119113
WJan 25 · 15:50O. Sebek—117711113L. Pour—51111892
LJan 23 · 14:50O. Sebek—8740L. Pour—1111113
O. Sebek10
LSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek3.252850M. Nemec1.331111113LSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek1.7398111162M. Kolbusovsky2.00111176113WSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113WSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133LSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191LSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113LAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161LAug 28 · 12:20O. Sebek2.63411461J. Brynych1.4411711113LAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113LAug 28 · 10:20O. Sebek2.2081111352J. Rolik1.61119911113
L. Pour10
LSep 10 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky1.73101211113L. Pour2.001210781WSep 10 · 10:50L. Pour1.91111211123M. Nemec1.8061013101WAug 2 · 13:28L. Pour2.3812118113J. Rolik1.531061121WAug 2 · 12:20L. Pour1.831412116113J. Rolik1.83161091182LAug 2 · 11:20L. Pour3.0011301182R. Zeman1.36911118113LAug 2 · 10:20L. Pour1.8396111162M. Nemec1.83111153113LJul 26 · 13:26J. Brynych1.601211113L. Pour2.2010650LJul 26 · 12:20J. Brynych1.4412115113L. Pour2.631081181LJul 26 · 11:50R. Zeman1.4071211113L. Pour2.751110971LJul 26 · 10:50L. Pour1.80311581M. Nemec1.9111511113
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