TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13110000
Played Sep 10Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71171111513111210
Lukas Pour
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Lukas Pour below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 98 set 5, 12-10
98 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 15–15 Lukas Pour Dead even across their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 8–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Pour beat Nemec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Nemec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pour form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 1.67 / Pour 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Nemec)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13110000
Nemec1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 88 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it78% 59 of 76
Pour2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 10 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec8wins
AwayPour2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNemec leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemec100%7 of 7
AwayPour66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec7Pour3n = 10Nemec took 7 of 10
S2Nemec5Pour5n = 10split evenly
S3Nemec5Pour5n = 10split evenly
S4Nemec4Pour4n = 8split evenly
S5Nemec4Pour0n = 4Nemec took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecPourN − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.838.9+0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecPourBasisWin rate · lifetime374 / 777 vs 71 / 15948.1%44.7%374 / 777 vs 71 / 159Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NemecNemec 1.67/Pour 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Nemec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 10:50M. Nemec—61013101L. Pour—111211123
WAug 2 · 10:20M. Nemec—111153113L. Pour—96111162
WJul 26 · 10:50M. Nemec—11511113L. Pour—311581
WJul 19 · 11:50M. Nemec—1111113L. Pour—9770
WMay 10 · 07:50M. Nemec—1713311113L. Pour—151511792
WApr 23 · 15:50M. Nemec—111193113L. Pour—47111182
WApr 4 · 14:35M. Nemec—11113113L. Pour—881161
LApr 4 · 11:55M. Nemec—5940L. Pour—1111113
WMar 29 · 11:55M. Nemec—12711113L. Pour—1011881
WMar 22 · 10:55M. Nemec—6131111113L. Pour—111181362
M. Nemec10
WSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec1.531112113M. Kolbusovsky2.3881060WSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek3.252850M. Nemec1.331111113LSep 10 · 10:50L. Pour1.91111211123M. Nemec1.8061013101LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113
L. Pour10
WSep 10 · 12:20O. Sebek2.006990L. Pour1.731111113LSep 10 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky1.73101211113L. Pour2.001210781WSep 10 · 10:50L. Pour1.91111211123M. Nemec1.8061013101WAug 2 · 13:28L. Pour2.3812118113J. Rolik1.531061121WAug 2 · 12:20L. Pour1.831412116113J. Rolik1.83161091182LAug 2 · 11:20L. Pour3.0011301182R. Zeman1.36911118113LAug 2 · 10:20L. Pour1.8396111162M. Nemec1.83111153113LJul 26 · 13:26J. Brynych1.601211113L. Pour2.2010650LJul 26 · 12:20J. Brynych1.4412115113L. Pour2.631081181LJul 26 · 11:50R. Zeman1.4071211113L. Pour2.751110971
Upcoming Matches
M. Nemec
L. Pour
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