TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114156
Played Sep 11Finished
Jakub Rolik
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1178111113711––
Michal Kolbusovsky
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:24 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Rolik to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Rolik above · Michal Kolbusovsky below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 79 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jakub Rolik at 66.1%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Rolik 42–16 Michal Kolbusovsky Michal Kolbusovsky has won 16 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:24What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Rolik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-16 in 58
Rolik
Wrong
gap of 26 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rolik 1335 vs Kolbusovsky 1363
Kolbusovsky
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rolik 20% vs Kolbusovsky 60%
Kolbusovsky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rolik 40% vs Kolbusovsky 70%
Kolbusovsky
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rolik -2 · Kolbusovsky -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Rolik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbusovsky form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRolik 1.44 / Kolbusovsky 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Rolik)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13114156
Rolik1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 84 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 52 of 63
Kolbusovsky2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 58 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRolik7wins
AwayKolbusovsky3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRolik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRolik75%3 of 4
AwayKolbusovsky33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rolik4Kolbusovsky6n = 10Kolbusovsky took 6 of 10
S2Rolik9Kolbusovsky1n = 10Rolik took 9 of 10
S3Rolik5Kolbusovsky5n = 10split evenly
S4Rolik6Kolbusovsky3n = 9Rolik took 6 of 9
S5Rolik2Kolbusovsky2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRolikKolbusovskyR − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.338.8+5.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRolikKolbusovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 648 vs 209 / 44747.8%46.8%310 / 648 vs 209 / 447Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RolikRolik 1.44/Kolbusovsky 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Rolik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolbusovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 16:20J. Rolik—71181282M. Kolbusovsky—1181110113
WJul 24 · 21:20J. Rolik—1113153M. Kolbusovsky—911130
WJul 24 · 18:50J. Rolik—61111113M. Kolbusovsky—116871
WJul 24 · 13:18J. Rolik—71111113M. Kolbusovsky—116551
WJul 24 · 12:20J. Rolik—12118113M. Kolbusovsky—1091151
LJul 15 · 10:50J. Rolik—10117131M. Kolbusovsky—12511153
LJul 14 · 13:23J. Rolik—128111082M. Kolbusovsky—1011312113
WJul 14 · 11:20J. Rolik—8111011113M. Kolbusovsky—11712562
WJul 9 · 19:50J. Rolik—1011118113M. Kolbusovsky—12861172
WJul 8 · 10:50J. Rolik—111112113M. Kolbusovsky—981441
J. Rolik10
LSep 11 · 18:20J. Rolik2.254980P. Cibik1.571111113LSep 10 · 21:25M. Nemec1.8516911113J. Rolik1.851411881WSep 10 · 20:20M. Dlask1.579151381J. Rolik2.25111315113LSep 10 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011119173J. Rolik1.735711151LSep 10 · 18:50J. Rolik2.388460R. Zeman1.531111113LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990
M. Kolbusovsky10
WSep 11 · 18:50M. Nemec1.61812611102M. Kolbusovsky2.201110114123LSep 10 · 13:19M. Kolbusovsky1.911211913122O. Sebek1.801461111143LSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec1.531112113M. Kolbusovsky2.3881060WSep 10 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky1.73101211113L. Pour2.001210781WSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek1.7398111162M. Kolbusovsky2.00111176113WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171WSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282LSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113WSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182WSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852
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M. Kolbusovsky
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