TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13113650
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81112106111141012
Michal Kolbusovsky
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Nemec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Michal Kolbusovsky below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 95 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Michal Nemec at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 36–22 Michal Kolbusovsky Michal Kolbusovsky has won 22 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:33What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nemec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-22 in 58
Nemec
Wrong
gap of 14 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1361 vs Kolbusovsky 1363
Kolbusovsky
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 60% vs Kolbusovsky 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 50% vs Kolbusovsky 70%
Kolbusovsky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec +1 · Kolbusovsky -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Nemec) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbusovsky form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 1.61 / Kolbusovsky 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Nemec)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13113650
Nemec1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 92 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it79% 62 of 79
Kolbusovsky2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 58 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec6wins
AwayKolbusovsky4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderNemec leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemec75%3 of 4
AwayKolbusovsky50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec4Kolbusovsky6n = 10Kolbusovsky took 6 of 10
S2Nemec6Kolbusovsky4n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S3Nemec8Kolbusovsky2n = 10Nemec took 8 of 10
S4Nemec4Kolbusovsky4n = 8split evenly
S5Nemec3Kolbusovsky3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecKolbusovskyN − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.541.8+2.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecKolbusovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime374 / 778 vs 209 / 44748.1%46.8%374 / 778 vs 209 / 447Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NemecNemec 1.61/Kolbusovsky 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Nemec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolbusovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec—1112113M. Kolbusovsky—81060
LSep 4 · 17:25M. Nemec—1161171M. Kolbusovsky—13117113
LSep 4 · 14:20M. Nemec—111241182M. Kolbusovsky—914116113
LSep 2 · 16:20M. Nemec—68111132M. Kolbusovsky—111158113
WJul 24 · 19:20M. Nemec—911118113M. Kolbusovsky—11551152
LJul 15 · 12:20M. Nemec—91114732M. Kolbusovsky—1171211113
WJul 14 · 12:20M. Nemec—1111236113M. Kolbusovsky—54251192
WJul 11 · 19:55M. Nemec—10121111113M. Kolbusovsky—12147872
WJul 9 · 21:20M. Nemec—71611113M. Kolbusovsky—1114471
WJul 9 · 20:50M. Nemec—1113113M. Kolbusovsky—91180
M. Nemec10
LSep 11 · 19:50P. Cibik1.571191011113M. Nemec2.2551112892WSep 10 · 21:25M. Nemec1.8516911113J. Rolik1.851411881LSep 10 · 20:50R. Zeman1.441114123M. Nemec2.63612100WSep 10 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011119173J. Rolik1.735711151LSep 10 · 18:20M. Dlask1.67121169113M. Nemec2.10109111152WSep 10 · 13:49M. Nemec1.67771113123L. Pour2.101111511102WSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec1.531112113M. Kolbusovsky2.3881060WSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek3.252850M. Nemec1.331111113LSep 10 · 10:50L. Pour1.91111211123M. Nemec1.8061013101LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183
M. Kolbusovsky10
WSep 11 · 19:20J. Rolik1.441181171M. Kolbusovsky2.6371113113LSep 10 · 13:19M. Kolbusovsky1.911211913122O. Sebek1.801461111143LSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec1.531112113M. Kolbusovsky2.3881060WSep 10 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky1.73101211113L. Pour2.001210781WSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek1.7398111162M. Kolbusovsky2.00111176113WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171WSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282LSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113WSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182WSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852
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