TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114171
Played Sep 11Finished
Pavel Cibik
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1159111012118119
Michal Nemec
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:34 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 62.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 19–10 Michal Nemec Michal Nemec has won 10 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:34What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-10 in 29
Cibik
Correct
gap of 9 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1476 vs Nemec 1340
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 80% vs Nemec 40%
Cibik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 60% vs Nemec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik +2 · Nemec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Cibik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 1.57 / Nemec 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Cibik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13114171
Cibik1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 65 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it74% 48 of 65
Nemec2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 82 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik7wins
AwayNemec3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik66.7%6 of 9
AwayNemecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik9Nemec1n = 10Cibik took 9 of 10
S2Cibik6Nemec4n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S3Cibik5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S4Cibik3Nemec5n = 8Nemec took 5 of 8
S5Cibik3Nemec2n = 5Cibik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikNemecC − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match43.839.3+4.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 676 vs 370 / 77545.1%47.7%305 / 676 vs 370 / 775Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikCibik 1.57/Nemec 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 15:50P. Cibik—11119123M. Nemec—6511101
WAug 13 · 20:25P. Cibik—10111111113M. Nemec—12881382
WJul 27 · 19:55P. Cibik—1111113M. Nemec—8380
WJul 25 · 13:55P. Cibik—111114113M. Nemec—881681
LJul 25 · 10:55P. Cibik—1151110122M. Nemec—611712143
LJul 15 · 10:20P. Cibik—11611582M. Nemec—811711113
WJul 14 · 13:55P. Cibik—1111810113M. Nemec—59111262
WJul 14 · 11:50P. Cibik—129412113M. Nemec—1011111062
WJul 13 · 14:00P. Cibik—1114113M. Nemec—31280
LJul 13 · 11:55P. Cibik—1169101M. Nemec—71111123
P. Cibik10
WSep 11 · 18:20J. Rolik2.254980P. Cibik1.571111113WSep 9 · 17:50Z. Dusek1.83111011662P. Cibik1.83812911113LSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek1.8351111113P. Cibik1.83118691WSep 9 · 15:50P. Cibik2.10115811113M. Cesak1.6781111662WSep 9 · 14:20S. Matousch1.9171111942P. Cibik1.80119911113WSep 7 · 21:20R. Zeman2.025740P. Cibik1.701111113LSep 7 · 20:20P. Cibik1.611111103122R. Zeman2.20871211143LSep 7 · 19:20P. Cibik2.10811110Z. Vyskocil1.671113133WSep 7 · 18:20P. Cibik1.83113711113L. Vich1.8391111952LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113
M. Nemec10
LSep 11 · 20:20J. Rolik1.671111113M. Nemec2.107980LSep 11 · 18:50M. Nemec1.61812611102M. Kolbusovsky2.201110114123WSep 10 · 21:25M. Nemec1.8516911113J. Rolik1.851411881LSep 10 · 20:50R. Zeman1.441114123M. Nemec2.63612100WSep 10 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011119173J. Rolik1.735711151LSep 10 · 18:20M. Dlask1.67121169113M. Nemec2.10109111152WSep 10 · 13:49M. Nemec1.67771113123L. Pour2.101111511102WSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec1.531112113M. Kolbusovsky2.3881060WSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek3.252850M. Nemec1.331111113LSep 10 · 10:50L. Pour1.91111211123M. Nemec1.8061013101
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