TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114148
Played Sep 11Finished
Jakub Rolik
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119118––––
Michal Nemec
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:23 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Rolik to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Rolik above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-6
Point 54 set 3, 10-6 — our read held Jakub Rolik at 56.6%
54 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jakub Rolik 81–87 Michal Nemec Jakub Rolik has won 81 of their 168 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:23What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rolik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
81-87 in 168
Nemec
Wrong
gap of 6 in 168, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rolik 1308 vs Nemec 1333
Nemec
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rolik 20% vs Nemec 40%
Nemec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rolik 30% vs Nemec 50%
Nemec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rolik -3 · Nemec -2
Rolik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Rolik) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rolik form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRolik 1.67 / Nemec 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Rolik)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13114148
Rolik1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 84 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 52 of 63
Nemec2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 82 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRolik7wins
AwayNemec3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRolik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRolik100%5 of 5
AwayNemec60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rolik5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S2Rolik6Nemec4n = 10Rolik took 6 of 10
S3Rolik6Nemec4n = 10Rolik took 6 of 10
S4Rolik2Nemec6n = 8Nemec took 6 of 8
S5Rolik4Nemec0n = 4Rolik took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRolikNemecR − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.942.4+0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRolikNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 649 vs 370 / 77647.8%47.7%310 / 649 vs 370 / 776Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RolikRolik 1.67/Nemec 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Rolik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rolik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 21:25J. Rolik—1411881M. Nemec—16911113
LSep 10 · 19:50J. Rolik—5711151M. Nemec—11119173
WSep 4 · 15:50J. Rolik—31113113M. Nemec—1171191
WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik—1211113M. Nemec—10990
WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik—1113512113M. Nemec—911111482
WAug 26 · 19:50J. Rolik—121189113M. Nemec—105111112
LAug 24 · 10:20J. Rolik—14640M. Nemec—1611113
WAug 19 · 21:28J. Rolik—1313125113M. Nemec—1115101192
WAug 19 · 18:20J. Rolik—1311119113M. Nemec—15921162
WAug 18 · 19:50J. Rolik—12811113M. Nemec—1011861
J. Rolik10
LSep 11 · 19:20J. Rolik1.441181171M. Kolbusovsky2.6371113113LSep 11 · 18:20J. Rolik2.254980P. Cibik1.571111113LSep 10 · 21:25M. Nemec1.8516911113J. Rolik1.851411881WSep 10 · 20:20M. Dlask1.579151381J. Rolik2.25111315113LSep 10 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011119173J. Rolik1.735711151LSep 10 · 18:50J. Rolik2.388460R. Zeman1.531111113LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462
M. Nemec10
LSep 11 · 19:50P. Cibik1.571191011113M. Nemec2.2551112892LSep 11 · 18:50M. Nemec1.61812611102M. Kolbusovsky2.201110114123WSep 10 · 21:25M. Nemec1.8516911113J. Rolik1.851411881LSep 10 · 20:50R. Zeman1.441114123M. Nemec2.63612100WSep 10 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011119173J. Rolik1.735711151LSep 10 · 18:20M. Dlask1.67121169113M. Nemec2.10109111152WSep 10 · 13:49M. Nemec1.67771113123L. Pour2.101111511102WSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec1.531112113M. Kolbusovsky2.3881060WSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek3.252850M. Nemec1.331111113LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113
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