TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13109919
Played Sep 10Finished
Michal Kolbusovsky
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
121411691113111214
Ondrej Sebek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Ondrej Sebek below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 113 set 5, 12-14
113 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 25–38 Ondrej Sebek Michal Kolbusovsky has won 25 of their 63 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kolbusovsky beat Sebek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sebek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 1.91 / Sebek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sebek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13109919
Kolbusovsky1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 57 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 51
Sebek1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite46% won 10 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it50% 6 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky6wins
AwaySebek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolbusovsky leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovsky100%3 of 3
AwaySebek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky3Sebek7n = 10Sebek took 7 of 10
S2Kolbusovsky5Sebek5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolbusovsky4Sebek6n = 10Sebek took 6 of 10
S4Kolbusovsky6Sebek2n = 8Kolbusovsky took 6 of 8
S5Kolbusovsky3Sebek1n = 4Kolbusovsky took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbusovskySebekK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.540.1−1.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskySebekBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 446 vs 184 / 37246.9%49.5%209 / 446 vs 184 / 372Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SebekKolbusovsky 1.91/Sebek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky—111176113O. Sebek—98111162
WJun 4 · 10:50M. Kolbusovsky—11311113O. Sebek—911981
LMay 26 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky—71141292O. Sebek—1161110113
LMay 21 · 13:30M. Kolbusovsky—61060O. Sebek—1112113
LMay 21 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky—1071171O. Sebek—12119113
LMay 17 · 10:00M. Kolbusovsky—8690O. Sebek—1111113
WMay 17 · 07:50M. Kolbusovsky—91111113O. Sebek—118951
WMay 12 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky—11113113O. Sebek—741181
WMay 5 · 12:50M. Kolbusovsky—811411113O. Sebek—11811692
WApr 30 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky—8111111163O. Sebek—111368142
M. Kolbusovsky10
LSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec1.531112113M. Kolbusovsky2.3881060WSep 10 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky1.73101211113L. Pour2.001210781WSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek1.7398111162M. Kolbusovsky2.00111176113WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171WSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282LSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113WSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182WSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38111158113M. Nemec1.5368111132LSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113
O. Sebek10
LSep 10 · 12:20O. Sebek2.006990L. Pour1.731111113LSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek3.252850M. Nemec1.331111113LSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek1.7398111162M. Kolbusovsky2.00111176113WSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113WSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133LSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191LSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113LAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161LAug 28 · 12:20O. Sebek2.63411461J. Brynych1.4411711113LAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113
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