TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114160
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Kolbusovsky
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115119611811511
Pavel Cibik
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:22 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 88 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 65.3%
88 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 6–9 Pavel Cibik Michal Kolbusovsky has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:22What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Cibik
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1405 vs Cibik 1491
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 60% vs Cibik 80%
Cibik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 70% vs Cibik 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky +2 · Cibik +3
Cibik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Cibik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 2.63 / Cibik 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Cibik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13114160
Kolbusovsky2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 58 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Cibik1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 65 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it74% 48 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky3wins
AwayCibik7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovsky33.3%1 of 3
AwayCibik71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky3Cibik7n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S2Kolbusovsky4Cibik6n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S3Kolbusovsky3Cibik7n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S4Kolbusovsky4Cibik4n = 8split evenly
S5Kolbusovsky3Cibik3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbusovskyCibikK − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.343.5−6.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskyCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 450 vs 307 / 67846.9%45.3%211 / 450 vs 307 / 678Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikKolbusovsky 2.63/Cibik 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 20:50M. Kolbusovsky—11116852P. Cibik—591111113
WSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky—911511113P. Cibik—11811852
WSep 2 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky—741111123P. Cibik—111179102
LJul 24 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky—410131172P. Cibik—1112116113
LJul 15 · 14:00M. Kolbusovsky—1110111062P. Cibik—812912113
LJul 15 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky—9560P. Cibik—1111113
LJul 14 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky—811251P. Cibik—11911113
LJul 8 · 12:50M. Kolbusovsky—611891P. Cibik—11811113
WJun 30 · 12:50M. Kolbusovsky—116811113P. Cibik—71111882
LJun 29 · 12:50M. Kolbusovsky—6950P. Cibik—1111113
M. Kolbusovsky10
WSep 11 · 19:20J. Rolik1.441181171M. Kolbusovsky2.6371113113WSep 11 · 18:50M. Nemec1.61812611102M. Kolbusovsky2.201110114123LSep 10 · 13:19M. Kolbusovsky1.911211913122O. Sebek1.801461111143LSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec1.531112113M. Kolbusovsky2.3881060WSep 10 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky1.73101211113L. Pour2.001210781WSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek1.7398111162M. Kolbusovsky2.00111176113WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171WSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282LSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113WSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182
P. Cibik10
WSep 11 · 19:50P. Cibik1.571191011113M. Nemec2.2551112892WSep 11 · 18:20J. Rolik2.254980P. Cibik1.571111113WSep 9 · 17:50Z. Dusek1.83111011662P. Cibik1.83812911113LSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek1.8351111113P. Cibik1.83118691WSep 9 · 15:50P. Cibik2.10115811113M. Cesak1.6781111662WSep 9 · 14:20S. Matousch1.9171111942P. Cibik1.80119911113WSep 7 · 21:20R. Zeman2.025740P. Cibik1.701111113LSep 7 · 20:20P. Cibik1.611111103122R. Zeman2.20871211143LSep 7 · 19:20P. Cibik2.10811110Z. Vyskocil1.671113133WSep 7 · 18:20P. Cibik1.83113711113L. Vich1.8391111952
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