TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13117035
Played Sep 11Finished
Jakub Rolik
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118112116––––
Michal Nemec
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingJakub Rolik above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 49 set 3, 11-6
49 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Rolik 82–87 Michal Nemec Jakub Rolik has won 82 of their 169 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Rolik beat Nemec 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Rolik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRolik 1.44 / Nemec 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Rolik)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13117035
Rolik1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 84 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 52 of 63
Nemec2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 82 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRolik7wins
AwayNemec3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRolik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRolik100%5 of 5
AwayNemec60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rolik5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S2Rolik7Nemec3n = 10Rolik took 7 of 10
S3Rolik6Nemec4n = 10Rolik took 6 of 10
S4Rolik1Nemec6n = 7Nemec took 6 of 7
S5Rolik4Nemec0n = 4Rolik took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRolikNemecR − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.041.3+0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRolikNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime311 / 650 vs 370 / 77747.9%47.6%311 / 650 vs 370 / 777Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RolikRolik 1.44/Nemec 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Rolik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rolik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 20:20J. Rolik—1111113M. Nemec—7980
LSep 10 · 21:25J. Rolik—1411881M. Nemec—16911113
LSep 10 · 19:50J. Rolik—5711151M. Nemec—11119173
WSep 4 · 15:50J. Rolik—31113113M. Nemec—1171191
WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik—1211113M. Nemec—10990
WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik—1113512113M. Nemec—911111482
WAug 26 · 19:50J. Rolik—121189113M. Nemec—105111112
LAug 24 · 10:20J. Rolik—14640M. Nemec—1611113
WAug 19 · 21:28J. Rolik—1313125113M. Nemec—1115101192
WAug 19 · 18:20J. Rolik—1311119113M. Nemec—15921162
J. Rolik10
WSep 11 · 20:20J. Rolik1.671111113M. Nemec2.107980LSep 11 · 19:20J. Rolik1.441181171M. Kolbusovsky2.6371113113LSep 11 · 18:20J. Rolik2.254980P. Cibik1.571111113LSep 10 · 21:25M. Nemec1.8516911113J. Rolik1.851411881WSep 10 · 20:20M. Dlask1.579151381J. Rolik2.25111315113LSep 10 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011119173J. Rolik1.735711151LSep 10 · 18:50J. Rolik2.388460R. Zeman1.531111113LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113
M. Nemec10
LSep 11 · 20:20J. Rolik1.671111113M. Nemec2.107980LSep 11 · 19:50P. Cibik1.571191011113M. Nemec2.2551112892LSep 11 · 18:50M. Nemec1.61812611102M. Kolbusovsky2.201110114123WSep 10 · 21:25M. Nemec1.8516911113J. Rolik1.851411881LSep 10 · 20:50R. Zeman1.441114123M. Nemec2.63612100WSep 10 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011119173J. Rolik1.735711151LSep 10 · 18:20M. Dlask1.67121169113M. Nemec2.10109111152WSep 10 · 13:49M. Nemec1.67771113123L. Pour2.101111511102WSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec1.531112113M. Kolbusovsky2.3881060LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113
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