TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119068
Played Sep 12Finished
Pavel Cibik
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
111311611112141210
Michal Kolbusovsky
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:03 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Michal Kolbusovsky below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 101 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 62.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 10–6 Michal Kolbusovsky Michal Kolbusovsky has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:03What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Cibik
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1455 vs Kolbusovsky 1371
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 100% vs Kolbusovsky 40%
Cibik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 90% vs Kolbusovsky 50%
Cibik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik +5 · Kolbusovsky -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Cibik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 1.50 / Kolbusovsky 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Cibik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13119068
Cibik1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 69 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it75% 51 of 68
Kolbusovsky2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 60 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back23% 21 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik7wins
AwayKolbusovsky3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik71.4%5 of 7
AwayKolbusovsky33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik7Kolbusovsky3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S2Cibik5Kolbusovsky5n = 10split evenly
S3Cibik7Kolbusovsky3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S4Cibik5Kolbusovsky4n = 9Cibik took 5 of 9
S5Cibik3Kolbusovsky3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikKolbusovskyC − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.338.7+5.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikKolbusovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime308 / 679 vs 211 / 45245.4%46.7%308 / 679 vs 211 / 452Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikCibik 1.50/Kolbusovsky 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 21:55P. Cibik4111811113M. Kolbusovsky34611981
WSep 11 · 20:50P. Cibik47591111113M. Kolbusovsky4111116852
LSep 2 · 18:00P. Cibik4311811852M. Kolbusovsky47911511113
LSep 2 · 14:20P. Cibik48111179102M. Kolbusovsky45741111123
WJul 24 · 11:20P. Cibik511112116113M. Kolbusovsky45410131172
WJul 15 · 14:00P. Cibik52812912113M. Kolbusovsky481110111062
WJul 15 · 11:50P. Cibik331111113M. Kolbusovsky209560
WJul 14 · 10:20P. Cibik4211911113M. Kolbusovsky26811251
WJul 8 · 12:50P. Cibik4111811113M. Kolbusovsky34611891
LJun 30 · 12:50P. Cibik4571111882M. Kolbusovsky47116811113
P. Cibik10
WSep 12 · 14:55R. Zeman2.3859111152P. Cibik1.53111188113WSep 11 · 21:55P. Cibik1.2511811113M. Kolbusovsky3.35611981WSep 11 · 20:50M. Kolbusovsky2.6311116852P. Cibik1.44591111113WSep 11 · 19:50P. Cibik1.571191011113M. Nemec2.2551112892WSep 11 · 18:20J. Rolik2.254980P. Cibik1.571111113WSep 9 · 17:50Z. Dusek1.83111011662P. Cibik1.83812911113LSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek1.8351111113P. Cibik1.83118691WSep 9 · 15:50P. Cibik2.10115811113M. Cesak1.6781111662WSep 9 · 14:20S. Matousch1.9171111942P. Cibik1.80119911113WSep 7 · 21:20R. Zeman2.025740P. Cibik1.701111113
M. Kolbusovsky10
LSep 12 · 16:55R. Zeman1.251111113M. Kolbusovsky3.754660LSep 12 · 15:25M. Kolbusovsky2.509870O. Hula1.501111113LSep 11 · 21:55P. Cibik1.2511811113M. Kolbusovsky3.35611981LSep 11 · 20:50M. Kolbusovsky2.6311116852P. Cibik1.44591111113WSep 11 · 19:20J. Rolik1.441181171M. Kolbusovsky2.6371113113WSep 11 · 18:50M. Nemec1.61812611102M. Kolbusovsky2.201110114123LSep 10 · 13:19M. Kolbusovsky1.911211913122O. Sebek1.801461111143LSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec1.531112113M. Kolbusovsky2.3881060WSep 10 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky1.73101211113L. Pour2.001210781WSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek1.7398111162M. Kolbusovsky2.00111176113
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