TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137008
Played Sep 15Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11710121315116115
Marek Dlask
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:19 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMarek Dlask to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Marek Dlask below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 101 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Marek Dlask at 54.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 21–27 Marek Dlask Michal Nemec has won 21 of their 48 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Nemec beat Dlask 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dlask
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-27 in 48
Dlask
Wrong
gap of 6 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1350 vs Dlask 1410
Dlask
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 20% vs Dlask 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 20% vs Dlask 40%
Dlask
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec -1 · Dlask -3
Dlask
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dlask)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dlask form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 2.00 / Dlask 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Dlask)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13137008
Nemec2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 78 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 82
Dlask1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 33 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec4wins
AwayDlask6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDlask leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemec66.7%2 of 3
AwayDlask71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec3Dlask7n = 10Dlask took 7 of 10
S2Nemec5Dlask5n = 10split evenly
S3Nemec7Dlask3n = 10Nemec took 7 of 10
S4Nemec5Dlask3n = 8Nemec took 5 of 8
S5Nemec1Dlask4n = 5Dlask took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecDlaskN − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.738.6+3.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecDlaskBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 773 vs 142 / 30247.4%47%366 / 773 vs 142 / 302Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DlaskNemec 2.00/Dlask 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Dlask · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 19:20M. Nemec331111113M. Dlask197390
LSep 10 · 18:20M. Nemec46109111152M. Dlask49121169113
LAug 26 · 21:20M. Nemec4791111972M. Dlask50119811113
LAug 26 · 18:20M. Nemec229850M. Dlask331111113
WAug 25 · 19:50M. Nemec4411139113M. Dlask356111171
LAug 19 · 19:50M. Nemec4597111172M. Dlask44111129113
LAug 18 · 21:50M. Nemec32781161M. Dlask3611113113
WAug 18 · 20:50M. Nemec43101111113M. Dlask29127641
WAug 13 · 21:55M. Nemec5411111011113M. Dlask3713112652
LAug 13 · 19:25M. Nemec51128121092M. Dlask5410111012113
M. Nemec10
LSep 15 · 20:20M. Nemec2.63101171172J. Mach1.44129119113WSep 15 · 19:20M. Nemec2.001111113M. Dlask1.737390LSep 15 · 18:20M. Nemec3.0011611952R. Zeman1.36211411113LSep 13 · 13:25M. Nemec2.109350Z. Dusek1.671111113LSep 13 · 12:20M. Nemec2.753770R. Zeman1.401111113WSep 13 · 11:20M. Nemec2.5091111113Z. Dusek1.50115891LSep 13 · 10:20M. Nemec2.2511126101P. Cibik1.5741411123LSep 11 · 21:23J. Rolik1.441111113M. Nemec2.638260LSep 11 · 20:20J. Rolik1.671111113M. Nemec2.107980LSep 11 · 19:50P. Cibik1.571191011113M. Nemec2.2551112892
M. Dlask10
LSep 15 · 20:50M. Dlask2.104640R. Zeman1.671111113LSep 15 · 19:20M. Nemec2.001111113M. Dlask1.737390LSep 15 · 18:50J. Mach1.571111133M. Dlask2.2536110WSep 10 · 21:55M. Dlask1.921112113R. Zeman1.7871080LSep 10 · 20:20M. Dlask1.579151381J. Rolik2.25111315113WSep 10 · 19:20M. Dlask2.10114611113R. Zeman1.6781111652WSep 10 · 18:20M. Dlask1.67121169113M. Nemec2.10109111152LAug 31 · 21:30M. Dlask1.60111241182Z. Dusek2.20714119113WAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113LAug 31 · 19:50Z. Dusek1.5011119113M. Dlask2.50661161
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